Alarming

[Mr. Now]

Commodities are going parabolic, does anyone notice??

The rally yesterday is fake, synthetic, does anyone notice?

The Bush admin experiences top economic cabinet members jumping ship, does anyone notice?

The dollar is going hell in a handbag, does anyone notice?

Iran refuses to be bullied and says "come and get me", does anyone notice?



Inflation grows at a rate that far exceeds the rate of interestrate increases, DOES ANYONE NOTICE?

The shill-of-the-state TV media focuses attention instead on the BlueDevils soap opera, does any one notice?


DOES ANYONE NOTICE?

They are selling your country out from under you.

Thomas Jefferson's Warning To America : "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." Written by Jefferson in a letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin (1802).

"The advantages given banks and other financial institutions by our fiat monetary system, which is built on a foundation of legal tender laws, allow them to realize revenues that would not be available to these institutions in a free market. This represents legalized plunder of ordinary people. Legal tender laws thus enable the redistribution of wealth from those who produce it, mostly ordinary working people, to those who create and move around our irredeemable paper-ticket electronic money." -Rep. Ron Paul

[John Shiznit]

Your smart the rest of the world is dumb.

How is yesterday's rally synthetic? You just throw stuff out there with no proof. (like your bs about goog and the S + P which was extremely wrong)

You ignore the deflationary effects of chinese manufacturing. (i.e. labor costs on alot of manufactured goods declining because of a huge labor pool)

If inflation was as a big a problem as you suggest our interest rates would be skyrocketing. As there is a vested interest of a lot of bondholders of knowing the real inflation rate.

Conspriracy theorists are losers.

[Mr. Now]

Thank you for your post.

Yes, I notice that alot of cheap consumer goods from China actually provide cover for monetary inflation. I do not ignore that. I notice you do not read many of my posts, where I mention this several times.

This one was posted in October of 2005:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...Number=3816866
[ QUOTE ]

It is unlikely China's cheap imports will continue to provide sufficient deflationary pressure to counter what has already started in terms of monetary inflation in the USA.


[/ QUOTE ]

And, I notice the term "conspiracy theory" is often used to pretend John Nash's statements about collusion, contained in his works on game theory, are completely false. I notice that John Nash is considered a genius.





"If inflation was as a big a problem as you suggest our interest rates would be skyrocketing. As there is a vested interest of a lot of bondholders of knowing the real inflation rate."

Yes. According to this theory, the bond market is always right, and 100% efficient in the price discovery function at all times. That's why it is foolish to trade there; after all, there is no exploitable edge. Yet, I notice the bond market in per-day dollar terms in the largest trading market in the world. I wonder how this can be if the bond market is so smart.




"Conspriracy theorists are losers."

Yes, for example those "conspiracy theorists" who believe, in 1970, that the ongoing apparently endless Vietnam war benefits a narrow clique of moneyed corporate interests who profit from prolonging the war at the expense of unsophisticated but well-meaning working-class American people.

Yes, those "conspiracy theorists" certainly are obviously very wrong in their thinking. I mean, history now proves how wrong they actually are. Etc.

What's your handle again in the 2+2 trading contest on Marketocracy? My Marketocracy name is 'mrnow'. According to the results so far, either the market likes to reward routinely flawed thinking, or I am very lucky routinely flawed thinker, or both.

Now, I have to tell you: I'm a real nut about cutting losses and anything else that might drain energy.

So, I choose to not comment further to anything you may have to say, now.

Good luck in everything you do.

[ahnuld]

Mr Now I dont really know what your main point was if you had one.

I agree that there will be a huge negative supply shock to the U.S market now or in the near future caused by higher costs of inputs. This will cuase inflation and a recession. While I agree about that, I dont see what we can do to hedge against that. Any insights would be great.

Yes the dollar is collapsing, becuase america is a net importer of all these commodities and they are becoming more expensive. So hedge. I already shorted the U.S and bought the canadian dollar (most of canadas economy is centered on ressources so that explains the C $'s huge run up).

I dont have any main idea, these are just my thoughts. If you could point me in a direction so I could act on these events (other than shorting the dollar, already done) that would be great because I really cant see where to start.

[ahnuld]

ah, just read the link provided above. That is a good starting point for me but any extra ideas would be great.

[Mr. Now]

ahnuld ,

Thank you for your post. The purpose of my post is to focus attention on related market, economic and political behavior occurring now.

For example, precious metals typically move inversely to stocks. When both move in the same direction, it's time to pay attention to that divergence. Etc.

We are winning poker players and we notice when the "story" represented does not match actual facts. We actually get paid for developing and using this specific skill.

The intention of my post is to call attention to the market items that do not add up, such as what appear to be very misleading statements from the Fed in the face of obvious and intentional Fed-driven monetary inflation.

Do all readers believe the Fed can be trusted?

Search my posts on 'inflation' to examine my previous thoughts. Note the dates.

If you buy what is said in these posts, the next step is to learn about monetary inflations through economic history and ask yourself if we might be in the early stages of a hyperinflation.

There is no need to provide specific advice per se. In general, providing such advice is problematic to both the giver and the taker. Instead of taking advice, it is much better to come to your own conclusions. This way, you have the strength of your convictions when you back your opinion with money.


Again, the purpose of my post is to focus attention and generate discussion. Accordingly, it is not essential for me to lead that discussion, or to provide specific advice. If the post brings inflation and the likely actual motives of the Fed to attention, the post works.

Some folks think rising prices is inflation. That is false. Rising prices are a SYMPTOM of inflation, which is an increase of money in circulation.

The Fed directly controls the quantity of money in circulation.

Thomas Jefferson's Warning To America : "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." Written by Jefferson in a letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin (1802).

Inflation Definitions-- Only #8 is correct.
http://www.google.com/search?client=fire...G=Google+Search

[John Shiznit]

i dont know how long your contest has been running but long term in the stock market is more like a 5 - 10 year period.

no one could be considered a good trader without this type of time frame.

i used to be more of a day trader type and that is not the approach i will take in this contest.

so if i lose whatever. im very confident in my past record in the real mkt. so if i suck in this contest whatever

[John Shiznit]

if you cant short im not entering!
i tried to create a short only fund dont know if that will work out

[mcb]

[ QUOTE ]
Conspriracy theorists are losers.

[/ QUOTE ]
wrong

[adios]

[ QUOTE ]
If inflation was as a big a problem as you suggest our interest rates would be skyrocketing. As there is a vested interest of a lot of bondholders of knowing the real inflation rate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah the bond market is basically selling off including the long end for awhile now. I predicted a bear market for bonds months ago and bonds have basically gone south since. There's always mixed opinions about the numbers and what they portend for the future. The U.S. has been in a disinflationary mode for a long time and it takes time to change the mind set of many investors. Ray predicted cost push inflation over a year ago. Looks to be an accurate prediction to me from my vantage point. Core CPI numbers are showing inflation has definitely ticked up.