Could you fold AA?

[pipernga]

Could you ever fold AA in this situation? Villain is a solid player from what I could tell w/ just over 200 hands played with him. Poker tracker has him at 23/17 With only 1.4 flop agg. The stacks are deep.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

villain (SB): $39.90
BB: $18.65
UTG: $26.80
Hero (MP): $48.05
CO: $80.50
BTN: $25.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, 2 folds, villain calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">villain bets $2.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.00</font>, <font color="red">villain raises to $20.25</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $14.25 returned to villain

Pot Size: $14.25 ($0.70 Rake)

[bored]

Yeah, I can fold it.

[Student Caine]

Tough spot with AA.

Given your read (that he is a decent player, but not overly aggressive) and the stack sizes I probably fold here. I am not sure how weak-tight that is, but unless I have some outstanding read here that Villain is capable of this type of play with an overpair or AJ I can't get it in here.

The problem that I have here is that he cannot even be doing this with TP and a FD because the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is on the board.

Will be interesting to see what type of feedback we get from the better players (better than me that is, which is not really tough haha).

[Hail Eris]

I think it's a pretty easy fold. This guy's range is 100% sets and draws that you're flipping with.

[Kasane]

We're not flipping with the draws -- we've got excellent equity against them. Much better than anyone with a draw expects. We're nearly 2-1 faves over the ones we expect.

[viper930]

lol

[Hail Eris]

[ QUOTE ]
We're not flipping with the draws -- we've got excellent equity against them. Much better than anyone with a draw expects. We're nearly 2-1 faves over the ones we expect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just the draws:

Board: Jc 5s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.764% 49.76% 00.00% 1478 0.00 { 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 50.236% 50.24% 00.00% 1492 0.00 { AhAs }

Now the draws and the sets:

Board: Jc 5s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.375% 76.37% 00.00% 6805 0.00 { 55, 22, 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 23.625% 23.63% 00.00% 2105 0.00 { AhAs }

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]

Now the draws and the sets:

Board: Jc 5s 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.375% 76.37% 00.00% 6805 0.00 { 55, 22, 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 23.625% 23.63% 00.00% 2105 0.00 { AhAs }

[/ QUOTE ]

This range is too tight. I don't know many 23/17's that would call a raise from the SB with small SCs like 54s.

Edit: Also, would villain lead the flop with his sets? My gut says no, he'll c/r or c/c because you're c-betting the flop 100% of the time.

[TheDoubleA]

Here is my issue with this: what does the villian call here with in the SB and then leads the flop? Whith a flop aggression like that, I can only really see the villian CRing the flop. I cant imagine that a flop is played this aggressive with a set here. I think that AJ or KJ is a much bigger part of his range. I stack off here almost every time.

[Kasane]

yes, someone with those stats is folding pf almost all the draws you've listed. It's not combo draws we're up against, it's Ax draws -- if anything. Villain's probably not just calling with that many Axcc hands either. AQcc+ can be eliminated as well, as this villain would probably be reraising with those. AJcc is out, too.

I'm not saying it's right to call, I'm just saying we're 2-1 against the draws. Sets are the other half of the equation; we're just not flipping with the draws.