KK .25/50 Stars. What to do on flop?

[defence18]

No real reads. Had just moved to the table and played maybe 15 hands. How would you have played this on the flop?

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 3-bets</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero caps</font>, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (13SB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB caps</font>, Hero ?

[fretelöo]

Call. What else?

[voyamatarte]

grunch

These situations seem to stress me a little too. MP3 never misses an opportunity to raise a bet after you. Without a read, I can't tell if this is a semi-bluff or not. It looks like he is playing a high-pair preflop, and after flush SB starts betting instead of calling, possibly showing flush draws. But then, why was SB calling preflop? I dont know. A laydown seems good, but then again, are the pot odds good enough to stay in and see what they have? Should we fold if there is another club?

[illini43]

Call.

This could be a lot of hands, a lot of which beat you, but you are getting good enough odds to call to see the turn.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Call. What else?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding isn't out of the question. SB bet out into the preflop 3-bettor and capper, and MP3, having pf3'd your UTG pfr, 3-bets your flop raise, then SB caps. What do YOU think these guys have? I don't think you have to reduce your outs too much, as players at these limits usually aren't savvy enough to play a draw hard (unless it's the aforementioned J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), but that said you're only getting 11:1 immediate, and if you hit one of your outs and still getting action you're going to have to be cautious so your implieds suck.

Fold.

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call. What else?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding isn't out of the question. SB bet out into the preflop 3-bettor and capper, and MP3, having pf3'd your UTG pfr, 3-bets your flop raise, then SB caps. What do YOU think these guys have? I don't think you have to reduce your outs too much, as players at these limits usually aren't savvy enough to play a draw hard (unless it's the aforementioned J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), but that said you're only getting 11:1 immediate, and if you hit one of your outs and still getting action you're going to have to be cautious so your implieds suck.

Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, didn't even respond further to this thread. Anyway, I agree the action looks scary, and now that the results are out it's hard to do any further serious analysis, but my reasoning for the initial response was like this: We're getting 11.5:1 as MP will of course call. That would mean we need exactly 4 outs if we're positive that we're behind - which we don't get. However, if we're just ahead here 50%, then we need only two, and it becomes a thin call, but a call. Given the hesitation anyone should have folding an OP, I call the flop.

And yes, having TP2K, possibly with a bdfd to go with it will warrant a 3bet from MP etc. (the proof is this exact hand and Heros - in retrospect - horrible laydown).

I'm not particularily pleased with my hand anymore, but I'm not quite ready to give up yet.

[Second Toughest]

An easy call IMO. The pot is simply too big. The stuttering action on the turn means that had you called, you’d have probably got to showdown.

[ QUOTE ]
.....However, if we're just ahead here 50%, then we need only two, and it becomes a thin call, but a call. Given the hesitation anyone should have folding an OP, I call the flop..

[/ QUOTE ]

Don’t understand logic here. Not sure it’s reasonable to say that you need half as many outs to justify a call if you think you are 50% likely to be ahead. If you think you are ahead 50% of time, wouldn’t you consider a raise? Wouldn’t you call here if you thought you were ahead just 10% of the time (i.e. you have to be 90% certain you’re beat to fold)?

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
An easy call IMO. The pot is simply too big. The stuttering action on the turn means that had you called, you’d have probably got to showdown.

[ QUOTE ]
.....However, if we're just ahead here 50%, then we need only two, and it becomes a thin call, but a call. Given the hesitation anyone should have folding an OP, I call the flop..

[/ QUOTE ]

Don’t understand logic here. Not sure it’s reasonable to say that you need half as many outs to justify a call if you think you are 50% likely to be ahead. If you think you are ahead 50% of time, wouldn’t you consider a raise? Wouldn’t you call here if you thought you were ahead just 10% of the time (i.e. you have to be 90% certain you’re beat to fold)?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, because being good 10% isn't enough as you'll have to pay additional bets on turn and river. Right now you get 11:1 but if someone has a good draw and someone has AA, let's say, you'll likely have to pay 2 more, maybe even a lot more than that, on turn and river.

What I wrote is probably bull if taken literally. Basically it's the opposite of "I'm often ahead and if not, I have some outs to fall back on".

Here it's the opposite case: I'm often behind but got some outs to chase and the price for that seems to me marginally appropriate given the few times we're actually ahead already.

[akak]

Obviously call the single bet.

Now the turn is the good question here...we're not sure if these guys are maniacs who hit top pair or if someone has the obvious two pair or trips. Since you're in the middle, you're in a bit of a tricky situation.

I'm going to fold the turn unimproved. Here's why:

SB cold-called 3 bets PF, then donks the flop. I doubt he has trips since so many players wait till the turn with trips at this level. I'm putting him on AQ or a flush draw.

I'm putting MP3 on QQ or 99 since he made it 3 PF, and again 3-bets after both you and SB show that you have something.

I doubt you're ahead after that action, and you only have two outs. After SB leads the turn, if you call, you'll probably get stuck in the middle of a raising war while you desperately attempt to get to a showdown. Fold the turn unimproved.

[defence18]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously call the single bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 2 bets back to me on the flop.