AQo flops nut flush draw...

[Jay_Whufc]

BB leading 25/15/2.5 over 90 hands, seems ok
UTG is 37/15/1.2, not too concerned about his call, very much a station who had been running hot
Were obv at least calling, but what are the merits of raising here?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $55.85
BTN: $48.75
SB: $51.55
BB: $70
UTG: $121
Hero (MP): $55.10

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $2, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($7.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $2.50</font>, UTG calls $2.50, <font color="red">Hero ?

[Unknown Soldier]

you have bad implied odds and good equity. raisy daisy

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
you have bad implied odds and good equity. raisy daisy

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? We have anywhere from 5-15 outs (we don't really know how many) We're getting really good pot odds. Why raise and give someone a chance to reopen the betting? We have position and a cheap price, it seems more prudent to call?

[Jay_Whufc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you have bad implied odds and good equity. raisy daisy

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? We have anywhere from 5-15 outs (we don't really know how many) We're getting really good pot odds. Why raise and give someone a chance to reopen the betting? We have position and a cheap price, it seems more prudent to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

We have at least 9 outs??

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you have bad implied odds and good equity. raisy daisy

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? We have anywhere from 5-15 outs (we don't really know how many) We're getting really good pot odds. Why raise and give someone a chance to reopen the betting? We have position and a cheap price, it seems more prudent to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

We have at least 9 outs??

[/ QUOTE ]

The worst case scenario (though unlikely) is two people have crappy flushes already... in which case you only have 5 outs.

Best case scenario is they're both on draws or have lowpairs and you have 3 -A, 3 - Q and 9 flush outs.

[mystro]

I think the best case scenario here is much much much more likel than the worse case scenario... two made flushes are unlikely, and I think even one made crappy flush bets out more here as they are scared of another heart

I think FD/set/overpairs play like this because they are scared and by raising I get more money when I'm ahead against essentially everything that's not a set/flush, and might even get some sets to fold

am I completely off my rocker here?

[Unknown Soldier]

bad IMPLIED odds. i.e. we ain't getting paid often when we hit unless he has a heart

[Unknown Soldier]

granted we have direct odds to call this, but i prefer raising now