theory question

[iRockPoker03]

lets say your playing a cash game blinds 50/100 and you both have 10,000 stacks and you can see your opponents cards for this hand

you are dealt AQo on the button, raise it to 300 and see your opponent has 43s which he then reraises to 1200

would you reraise him enough to make him fold so he wont suckout?

call and let him hang himself?

make a small raise to build the pot?

idk just some random thoughts running through my head

any opinions appreciated

[mbsocc1346]

Re-raise to get the money in with the equity the highest. Normal answer i suspect.

[Gonso]

No, this is a call. Your informational advantage here has a tremendous value. You're immune to bluffs and have position, that's worth quite a bit.

If you shove here, you're going to take down the pot and only get 1,200 from his stack. If you call, you'll have position on this guy and there's a chance you get a lot more out of him. It's going to be very hard for him to hit a flop at all, and you should have an easy time pushing him off a 1 pair hand or weak draws easily enough when he hits those.

If stacks were smaller, then it would be more in your interest to end the hand.

[RarocASP]

[ QUOTE ]
No, this is a call.


[/ QUOTE ]

this is def the best line w/ position

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
No, this is a call. Your informational advantage here has a tremendous value. You're immune to bluffs and have position, that's worth quite a bit.

If you shove here, you're going to take down the pot and only get 1,200 from his stack. If you call, you'll have position on this guy and there's a chance you get a lot more out of him. It's going to be very hard for him to hit a flop at all, and you should have an easy time pushing him off a 1 pair hand or weak draws easily enough when he hits those.

If stacks were smaller, then it would be more in your interest to end the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
Your analysis and the other one you gave here seem to be slanted towards this sort of hand being an ongoing occurance. OP seems to indicate this is a one off.

I think to get the most money out of this situation you would really have the know the psychological make up of villain. For example, maybe a min-reraise would induce an all-in bluff.

So if you weren't thinking this through as a one time only hand, do you have any modifications to your analysis?

[Gonso]

Acevader,

I'm not saying I think it's likely, I'm saying you still have to acknowledge there's a risk to your preflop equity if you take the call line.



POF,

[ QUOTE ]
I think to get the most money out of this situation you would really have the know the psychological make up of villain. For example, maybe a min-reraise would induce an all-in bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe, but again I don't want him to all-in bluff. He still has a reasonable amount of showdown equity which limits my EV - which is less than the EV I think you could reasonably expect taking a flop.

If the flop doesn't improve him and he c-bets even half the pot, shoving on him will force a fold. The pot will be larger than the EV you would have had getting him all in preflop. If he checks it and the board is safe you could then do your min raise or check behind to induce an AI bluff or turn raise depending on the player and read, etc.

You just need to get more than 2k EV in the hand to make it more profitable than an AI showdown, which you're probably not getting him to go for in the first place.

As far as modifying based on reads, there's not much I'd do differently preflop. The only real exception I can think of would be if

1) I knew this player wouldn't put any more money in unless he hit AND

2) he couldn't fold a flopped 3 or 4 or hand where he's ahead or is otherwise correct to call

In this case a tight-weak calling station inadvertently wouldn't be giving me the implied odds I need to give me more value than the showdown (or probably even get shoving PF)

[Acevader]

[ QUOTE ]
Acevader, I'm not saying I don't think it's likely, I'm saying you still have to acknowledge there's a risk to your preflop equity if you take the call line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course there is a risk. He might make some stupid hero call with just a low pair on a scary board or actually hit a strong hand we know we can't get him to fold.

But that's like saying you should push AI with AA on the BTN to secure the assured profit from the BB+SB. You'll take down a little profit each time but unquestionably the better line is a normal raise even though it incurs a degree of risk in that you can be beaten or stacked on the flop/turn/river.

Those that say to push preflop have a tournament mentality - they see a pot grow to a certain size and then they just want it and are happy for their profit. Cash games as we know are about overall expected value in the long run and as Gonso and I are saying, whilst riskier, the most profitable move here is to see a flop and usually let villain run his bluff.

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe, but again I don't want him to all-in bluff. He still has a reasonable amount of showdown equity which limits my EV - which is less than the EV I think you could reasonably expect taking a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree, if we get AI we'd be 60/40 with $12,000 equity in the $20,0000 pot thus an EV of +$2000.

If we take a flop by calling we have a pot of around $2400 on the flop and if villain c-bets most of the time for $2000 it creates a pot with $3200 of villains money in it. If we take that by bluff/having the best hand around 75% of the time (reasonable I feel) then that's +$2400. If we consider him potentially bluffing more or getting AI with lesser hands, etc, etc we can gain even more. So again, taking the 'see a flop line' would likely have a higher expectation.

[mce86]

If you like money, you need to raise this up! 2 out of 5 times you will lose here! If he wants to play 60-40, make him pay for it.

[greggg230]

[ QUOTE ]
If you like money, you need to raise this up! 2 out of 5 times you will lose here! If he wants to play 60-40, make him pay for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not true. If he got all-in pre-flop, he'd be 60-40 to win the hand, but his chances are much higher since he'd be seeing a flop. He could get his opponent to fold, for example, on a board like 4QJ pretty easily. He also has position, making him a much bigger favorite.

[Gonso]

[ QUOTE ]
If you like money, you need to raise this up! 2 out of 5 times you will lose here! If he wants to play 60-40, make him pay for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

MCE, you're overvaluing his hand... he only has 40% if he gets the full showdown value of his hand, which you don't have to give him.

It's not that it isn't a good thing to get AI as a 60-40 favorite, it is, but given the situation you're likely to increase your EV by taking a different line.

If you raise here, what do you expect will happen? Let's break it down:

1) Almost always he will let the hand go and you'll pick up a small pot. You get 12bb out of him in addition to whichever blind he wasn't playing, and your 3bb back as well, so you're earning $1,600 or $1,700 cash here. Not very much, but not bad.

2) If he comes over the top, which is probably all-in, you'll instacall and be a 3-2 favorite for the pot, and you'll earn about 20bb ($2,000) worth of EV.

3) If he comes over the top and had money behind, you're best option is to shove and get him to fold, since now he will have enough equity to call you and be correct. That would be a massive mistake, but it's just not going to happen. Again, you going to play for stacks as a 3-2 fav and have an EV of $2k.

The reason I'm saying raising is a bad play is that I think you can be much more profitable than this by calling and trying to extract more from this player by getting HIM to commit more money when behind. Again, you not only know his cards, you have a good hand and position also. Let's look at some scenarios if you just call him:

1) If you both miss and he leads out, you can reraise or shove, which he won't be able to call. If he shoves, you can happily call, because you will be a bigger favorite now.

2) If he hits a small hand, you'll probably be able to take this away from him. It will be hard for him to call with bottom pair/no kicker which is what he's most likely to hit. If he picks up a draw, you can shut down the action by shoving (unless it's a monster draw that gives him enough equity to call, see #3).

3) If he makes a strong hand (which will be VERY infrequently) he won't be able to extract anything from you, unless you also have enough equity to play for stacks.

4) You improve your hand.

Obviously there aren't going to be very many flops that he'll be able to play for stacks with, and even then you'll know when he has one.

Here's a guy that 3-bet you OOP preflop with 43s, and saw you flat call it. The idea is that you might get more money out of the guy when he fires off a barrel or two, and then force him to fold and make more money while not risking a showdown at all.

Plus he's not going to be able to continue on many flops, even on a bunch where he pairs and is ahead of you. There's no reason to be afraid of taking a flop with this guy.



Cliff notes

Taking the pot down immediately is profitable, but you're likely to get even more value out of him taking a flop and getting him to put more money in later. Most flops will not threaten you - since you know his cards, you have relatively little risk while you have a shot at getting maybe his entire stack.

If you 4-bet him preflop, he's just going to fold and you won't be giving him a chance to make bigger mistakes.