Fold AKo to an open gross-overbet?

hagbard celine · #1 02-20-2007, 01:46 PM

I think this might be a leak in my game, but I really don't feel comfortable calling off a large portion-all of my stack with AK.

In this situation I feel that his raise commits him to the pot, meaning he is essentially raising all in. So, I feel that my only options are calling and pushing/calling AI on any flop, pushing PF, or folding.

I would appreciate any and all feedback on this hand:

$50 live tournament. 16 players, 4 paid. We are down to 4.

Villain is a tricky, fearless, LAG player; at this point he is probably the best player at the table.

Stack Sizes:

Villain 15,000
Hero 13,000
SB 8,000
BB 12,000

Hero is the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain opens by taking all his highest-denomination chips, and stating, "all the whites"--amounting to a raise of about 8,000-9,000.

Hero?

Beachman42 · #2 02-20-2007, 01:58 PM

I shove. You are ITM and have a 50/50 shot at taking a dominant position right here. You are correct that you have no FE here as villian will call getting >3:1.

What has villian opened in the past?

What are the blinds + antes?

Unless you can put him on exactly AA or KK, you have the equity to race here and the outcome is really good - you either take away the "best player's" advantage by shoving pf and double up or you collect 4th place monies knowing you made the correct play.

hagbard celine · #3 02-20-2007, 02:12 PM

Sorry, blinds are 400/800, no ante

He opens any pair, probably AJ+ four-handed, maybe ATo, A9s+.

My overwhelming feeling though is that he's doing this with a pair.

Suppose that is the case, should I take the negative end of a coin flip for my whole stack? (I might add here that I would consider myself to be the next best player at the table, and if I do take this hand, I am almost a lock to take it down)

southgapoker · #4 02-20-2007, 02:22 PM

You are ahead of the first range you mentioned (AJ+, any pair) though BARELY.

If you think he does this with nothing but a pair and any pair then you can obviously fold. But you can't honestly tell me his range is "any pair" and includes no aces or anything else.

Black Aces 518 · #5 02-20-2007, 02:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, blinds are 400/800, no ante

He opens any pair, probably AJ+ four-handed, maybe ATo, A9s+.

My overwhelming feeling though is that he's doing this with a pair.

Suppose that is the case, should I take the negative end of a coin flip for my whole stack? (I might add here that I would consider myself to be the next best player at the table, and if I do take this hand, I am almost a lock to take it down)

[/ QUOTE ]

With these blinds, your skill advantage is negated somewhat. The chip leader has an M of 12. 48 hands to busto.

There is no way in the world I am folding here. Also, the range you assign is WAY too tight for a 'tricky LAG' chip leader 4 handed. Now, maybe he has a different range for this size of bet, you haven't told us about any of his previous hands raise sizes. But a standard opening range for a tricky LAG 4 handed, I would say would be more like any pair, any ace, most kings, any 2 broadway, suited connectors down to 67 or so. He wants to bully you around and use his chip leadership, right? It's clearly working, you want to lay AK preflop with an M of 10.

southgapoker · #6 02-20-2007, 02:29 PM

Another thing here. If he is a smart player then he will realize the size of the bet essentially does not matter.

You have 12K - 15 BBs. So even a 4-5 BB bet means he is calling any push from any of the other players including you if he has a hand he actually "should" be raising with.

It's late tournament, low M poker. It's four handed. You want your money in the middle preflop with AK in this situation.

AragornX151 · #7 02-20-2007, 03:06 PM

Easiest shove in the world.

hagbard celine · #8 02-20-2007, 04:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Another thing here. If he is a smart player then he will realize the size of the bet essentially does not matter.

You have 12K - 15 BBs. So even a 4-5 BB bet means he is calling any push from any of the other players including you if he has a hand he actually "should" be raising with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. If he raises to 3200 or 4000, that's where my AK has folding equity, because if I push over the top, he can fold and still have 11,000. Calling and losing leaves him with only 3,000.

The same player, several hands before this, raised to about 3600, was RRAI by the BB in the above hand, and folded, showing JJ.

A couple hands after that, Villain raised from UTG, to 3200, and I came over the top AI with AA, he folded, showing 77.

So, I think the size of the bet does matter. His bet leaves me with no power in the hand. I can either call or fold.

That being said, I agree that this is a call. I have a strong hand that is WA/SB most of his range, and will be seeing all five cards.

rapsu · #9 02-20-2007, 02:28 PM

if he had aces or king I dont think he would be raising this much. easy shove. You are 4-handed here...dont expect to see many aces or kings.

southgapoker · #10 02-20-2007, 02:03 PM

I doubt they are so unusually low it matters but what are the blinds?

I do not see why you would want to think about getting away from AK against a player you have described as a tricky lag in a four handed game. Again, we do not know the blinds but they would have to be extremely small (which I doubt they are at this point in a tournament) for me to really even think about laying this down.

Shove.