Gentleman, give it to me straight, do you think the sky is falling?

[Bond18]

This kind of post "belongs" in legislation, but to be completely honest every time i read something in there it disolves into heresay and name calling and I'm left more confused than when i went in. I want the opinions of those i know and respect, so i've come to all of you.

As you may or may not have heard, neteller has agreed agreed to cooporate in the DOJ investigation and 55 million in funds has been frozen. Transfers to US accounts have been frozen.

Since netellers closing, no new method of providing safe, reliable and cheap transfers as entered the market and calmed fears.

Online guaranteed prize pools on at least two sites (UB and bodog) still available to US players have been getting smaller (bodog 30k drops to 25k, numerous on UB.)

As numerous players have noted, tournament fields seem to be getting stronger, with more 2+2ers/p5'ers at tables of interesting buy in.

In your opinion, and if you can PLEASE back it up with reasoning, is "the sky falling"? Are online tournaments becoming less and less profitable? If so will that trend continue?

Thanks guys, Bond

[mikeJ]

Link from updates.neteller.com

http://www.neteller-group.com/press/en/124.htm

The sky is not falling. It will merely be a lot lower from now on.

Take that as you will.

[Bond18]

[ QUOTE ]
The sky is not falling. It will merely be a lot lower from now on.

Take that as you will.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a gun to my head with 1 bullet in it.

[adanthar]

stars used to be 500K guaranteed (and 300K before that)...that's not happening.

it's not gonna be 2M guaranteed anytime soon now, either, but who cares.

also, learn cash.

[RushnRocket]

Stop the violence!

[Body Man D]

I just went to my bank to deposit a 9k check from Pokerstars. It took about 20 minutes for them to figure out what the hell kind of check it was and attempt to verify funds. They still ended up putting a 5 day hold on the check. I also have 5k stuck on Neteller that I may never see.

Not a big deal about the hold on the check, but I don't see a lot of casual player's sticking around with all the aggrivation involved with getting money on and off the sites.

I don't think a good player will become -ev long term since there are still foreign fish playing, but I do think historical ROI's will be harder to realize from now on.


~Body Man

[locutus2002]

The sky has fallen.

Since Jan 1, cash game activity (measured in number of players) is down ~30% according to pokerscout.

The small site that I play on has abnormally small tournament field sizes consistent with a 30% reduction.

The freezing of Neteller accounts has redefined the security associated with online funds, as well as the privacy.

If you believe that people respond to incentives, then the bottom 30% of players have withdrawn from the game, moving the EV=0 mark substantially higher. Assuming that cheaters exist, and did not leave, the level of cheating (casual or otherwise) has increased by ~30% (proportionately).

The industry is under attack by the govt and the only thing currently holding it up is Pokerstars.

For many people, online poker will not be a viable source of income.

IMO the most important skill in poker is to be objective. This is a critical time for poker players to be objective about results and overall EV versus a diminished game. Basically the pool of money in play is ~bounded above on a site, and they are charging a vig against it every month.

The good news is that poker was continuing to grow before the neteller arrests. Registration at live tournaments is up on a yr on yr basis. Many online players will be driven into casinos which are prolific in the US. Unfortunately, live poker has more variance, because of higher entry fees and the inability to effectively multi-donk. This is even more reason to reflect on your ability to beat the game because you are likely to lose the compass of volumous results that online poker provides.

[Bob Loblaw]

[ QUOTE ]
The sky has fallen.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf are you talking about. Poker has grown SO [censored] MUCH the past two years it was natural for something to happen to suddenly throw the growth off for a while. This will stop growth for the near future, and probably even set us back a month or so but the million isn't gonna lose it's guarantee.

adanthar is being levelheaded; and locotus is [censored] out of his mind. business as usual.

[HandCracker]

i suggest everyone find a home game and a local casino like i have.