Heisman odds

iggymcfly · #1 10-12-2006, 05:57 AM

From Pinny:

101 Troy Smith (Ohio State) +197
102 Brady Quinn (Notre Dame) +302
103 Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma) +466
104 Steve Slaton (West Virginia) +805
105 Mike Hart (Michigan) +1211
106 Chris Leak (Florida) +2026
107 Mario Manningham (Michigan) +2540
108 Chad Henne (Michigan) +4101
109 Marshawn Lynch (California) +5158
110 Kenny Irons (Auburn) +4101
111 John David Booty (USC) +4101
112 Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech) +6227
113 Garrrett Wolfe (Northern Illinois) +3624

What does everyone think about Garrett Wolfe at +3624 here? Personally, I think he's a steal. He's been getting a ton of media hype lately, and I think if he rushes for 3000 yards, he may just win the award. CFN has him listed as the 2nd most likely player to win the award right now behind Troy Smith. I think a fair line would be somewhere around +1000. I suppose I could just max this bet out, but I don't feel comfortable putting too much into shaky futures markets, so I just took one unit at +4008 which was enough to move it to its current price.

Vince Young · #2 10-12-2006, 06:02 AM

I got a couple units on him at +6048.

MicroBob · #3 10-12-2006, 07:35 AM

I guess maybe if Troy Smith completely falls apart then Wolfe could start to have a shot at it.
But I don't think the voters on both coasts are really going to give it to some MAC RB. Just seems ridiculously unlikely to me but +6000 is a pretty nice price.

Tuds75 · #4 10-12-2006, 05:46 PM

I got two words for anyone who thinks Garrett Wolfe will win the Heisman...TROY DAVIS, He ran for 2,000 yards in consecutive seasons and he played in a major conference. He also rushed for 378 yards in a game. Garrett Wolfe is a nice story, but unless they win out and make a major bowl (which will not happen). The writting is on the wall for Wolfe, if he is invited that should be enough recognition for Wolfe.

Doesn't anyone else think Chris Leak is a great value at +2000. I mean he is the leader of the #2 team in the nation. He is on national TV on an almost weekly basis. He is a senior and a QB. And if Flordia wins out they would have defeated, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, FSU, and a conference title game, which will assure them to be playing for the national championship. Yes he loses some TDs to Tebow, but Reggie Bush lost a lot of TDs to Lenny White and it didn't hurt him any.

Tuds

smbruin22 · #5 10-12-2006, 06:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't anyone else think Chris Leak is a great value at +2000. I mean he is the leader of the #2 team in the nation. He is on national TV on an almost weekly basis. He is a senior and a QB. And if Flordia wins out they would have defeated, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, FSU, and a conference title game, which will assure them to be playing for the national championship. Yes he loses some TDs to Tebow, but Reggie Bush lost a lot of TDs to Lenny White and it didn't hurt him any.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i think leak looks good (tebow getting publicity is probably bad though. stupid voters will think they platoon).

booty at 40-1 looks decent (although if quinn and peterson are still considered strong candidates, then leak and booty may be sunk).

what about rutgers TB (rice) and missouri QB (daniels? although not sure about his stats)... but two crazy undefeateds)

iggymcfly · #6 10-12-2006, 07:11 PM

For the record, I don't think Pinny adjusts these lines much if at all based on performance. They just leave them out there, and wait for people to bet them down if they get off somehow. I think the general trend would be to overvalue players like Quinn and Peterson that had hype going into the season and to undervalue players like Wolfe or Booty that are making names for themselves. With that said, I can't see the voters giving it to a USC player for the third year in a row, even if just to avoid the perception of bias.

Also, Pinny says lines for other players are available on request, so if you want to take a longshot like Chase Daniel or Erik Ainge, you might be able to get a good payout.

smbruin22 · #7 10-22-2006, 02:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what about rutgers TB (rice) and missouri QB (daniels? although not sure about his stats)... but two crazy undefeateds)

[/ QUOTE ]

rice is looking better and better, although i suppose the race is smith's to lose with quinn still hanging around and some potential WVU action too.

too bad you can't bet on them getting to new york... because i am reasonable in knowing rice won't actually win it (11-0 rutgers and 50-1 odds today would look awfully good)

Derek123 · #8 10-12-2006, 11:47 AM

Its down to 2309 now.

Thremp · #9 10-12-2006, 11:50 AM

I think Wolfe need stats to get going... Like jawdropping ones... 2200+ yards and 25TD would be a good way to get noticed.

I think if Smith continues not to run and gets upended before the end of the season. Wolfe looks real good since his numbers are nutso.

mulebennett · #10 10-12-2006, 12:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think Wolfe need stats to get going... Like jawdropping ones... 2200+ yards and 25TD would be a good way to get noticed.

[/ QUOTE ]

1350 and 13 right now, facing Temple, Central Mich, Eastern Mich and Toledo, and Iowa. 5 of his next 6 games are against opponents who allow more than 130 yards per game on the ground.