Overcards hand from review session

[OrigamiSensei]

First of all I want to thank writser for taking the time to review my hands. He did a good work and I value his input. This is a hand where we differed in opinion on postflop play and I'd like others to weigh in with the hope that I learn something.

Ultimate Bet 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: OrigamiSensei is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, OrigamiSensei calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, OrigamiSensei checks.

Here's our conversation on the hand:

--- WRITSER: I'd bet on the flop to get some donks out and to buy a freecard on the turn. Getting C/R'd would suck though, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.

OS SEZ&gt; I'm getting my free card now. Why should I "buy" one with such a marginal hand? Getting c/r'd would REALLY suck in this case when all I have is a gutshot and two crappy overs. (Late note: and a crappy BDFD)

-- WRITSER: I tend to disagree. With this bet, you can see the river for 1 small bet, you buy yourself outs AND you might even pick up the pot right here.Yes, getting C/R'd sucks but that doesn't happen a lot at these limit. If you check, someone IS going to donk the turn and then you don't have the odds to call.

With fewer opponents, say 2 or 3, I think writser has a point. With 6 opponents I can't imagine doing anything but taking the free card and getting the heck out if I don't improve on the turn.

Discuss.

[MrWookie]

This field is too large to bet at. I like the check.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
This field is too large to bet at. I like the check.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
This field is too large to bet at. I like the check.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll add that I hate the bet. Risking putting in two bets with a weak draw for maybe a chance at a free card on the turn is a stupid thing to do.

[Hielko]

It's 7 handed, nobody is going to fold. A bet will also not clear your outs since I doubt that someone with AQ/AJ/KJ will fold. Your draw is also very weak, so check and hope to catch something on the turn (and then hope that it is enough to win the pot).

[johnnytt]

I dont bet into a field that big. Check and hope for the the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn.

[tiltaholic]

i don't hate betting the flop, actually.

we have a lot of outs and there are so many opponents that we might be betting for value if most of them are inclined to call.

[Hielko]

How much outs do you think we have on average tiltaholic?

[tiltaholic]

[ QUOTE ]
How much outs do you think we have on average tiltaholic?

[/ QUOTE ]

something like 8? maybe that's optimistic?
i doubt we're getting checkraised and we obviously don't need to bet the turn.

[OrigamiSensei]

I should include my reads here:

SB: Fishy stats, bad player, no clue how to handle a massive hand

BB: sLP-P stats, nothing outstanding to note

UTG+1: 38/8 LA-P stats

UTG+2: Fishy stats, otherwise nothing of note

MP3: Fishy, but watch out when he wakes up

CO: 50/6, has a habit of going off at inopportune times with air, his aggression gets greater with every street

Looking at the players in the hand it is fairly unlikely I'll get check-raised except if CO does one of his patented LAGtard moves but there is essentially zero chance of getting to the river with only a small bet now. No more than one or two will fold now (only the ones I don't want to fold) and one of them will bet the turn with almost 100% certainty. Also because their pre-flop standards are so low SOMEBODY hit that flop - I'm behind here.

We only have three solid outs to the gutshot (minus the diamond) and the following to improve the hand for drawing: any diamond, any king, queen or jack. So granted, roughly 21 turn cards do something to improve my chances of winning the hand but it's very speculative. Top pair bad kicker is unlikely to win here and if a person in early position bets I have a good chance to peel the river with proper drawing odds assuming lots of people call.

LATE EDIT: And forgot to mention the CO regularly takes overs to the river and the other fish have been known to occasionally as well if it's not too expensive.