EP 99 and a bad river

vhuntd · #1 03-20-2006, 04:14 AM

Villain is 26.57/8.39/1.82 over 150 hands

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP2 3-bets, 5 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (7.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ?

I almost never take a line like this. What should I do on the river and how are the rest of the streets? Also, if you don't like my line, can u suggest one given that flop?

chiachu · #2 03-20-2006, 04:25 AM

what line do you normally take?
I normally take this line on the flop and turn (i hope this isnt bad). I would check/fold the river.

vhuntd · #3 03-20-2006, 04:39 AM

Looking at this hand again I don't think it's very interesting now.
I don't like to say it but I'd normally take what I now consider to be an much inferior line (check-call after turn)
I just thought it was interesting because the river seemed like a possible bet/fold scenario but now that I think about it he'll almost never lay down a hand that beats me (JJ-KK, Ax) and he'll might now fold the very few hands that I beat (i.e. a 77 that he'll have very rarely).
He prolly won't raise either cept maybe with AK.
That river is pretty clearly a check fold given his stats.
He's also not folding JJ-KK at this point.
Yeah...not a very interesting hand. Sorry guys.
Bet/fold not usually a very good option @ .5/1

Toe-Knee · #4 03-20-2006, 05:42 AM

Geez I need a lot of help on this hand and I hope you guys could set me straight. First off will someone w/ these stats slowdown on a flop checkraise w/ 99+? Also isn't there just enough of a chance that he had something like KQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] KJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that we don't want to c/f the river cause there is some chance he'll bluff? Please set me straight cause I know I'm wrong here.

OXIO · #5 03-20-2006, 05:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Geez I need a lot of help on this hand and I hope you guys could set me straight. First off will someone w/ these stats slowdown on a flop checkraise w/ 99+? Also isn't there just enough of a chance that he had something like KQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] KJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that we don't want to c/f the river cause there is some chance he'll bluff? Please set me straight cause I know I'm wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont really think he will have Kx that often. He has reraised the UTG raiser, usually he will at least have AQs or smtng like that.

chiachu · #6 03-20-2006, 06:02 AM

i suppose KQs and KJs are possibilites, but i didnt think 8.39 PFR was high enough for me to consider it.

Toe-Knee · #7 03-20-2006, 06:06 AM

Ok I see a bit clearer, AK[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] AQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] maybe AJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are a really good possibilities, even just AK. Do you guys think you can rule out a PP w/ these stats and him not playing back at all? I really need to learn how to fold the river..... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Fantam · #8 03-20-2006, 09:49 AM

You could also have led the flop with a bet, but as it happens I like your flop check raise and lead of the turn.

The A on the river was an unfortunate card to fall, because now it is difficult to see your hand being ahead of any reasonable hand that your opponent would have 3-bet pf.

Even though the pot is quite large, I think that I would probably check fold this river.

jessie · #9 03-20-2006, 10:26 AM

:grunch:

With the pf 3 bet by MP2 I see a lot of hands that beat you and not much you're ahead of once that A hits the river. KQ/KJ are about the only hands I see you beating and they're not something most folks would reraise with.

Looks very much like AK, possibly JJ.

Check/fold the river.

jessie

borges · #10 03-20-2006, 10:31 AM

The action up to the river and his aggression stats are certainly indicating that he doesn't have a PP. He 3-bets probably with AK,AQ,AJs,KQs to be generous to our chances. There are 12 combos of AK, 12 combos of AQ,
3 combos of AJs, 4 combos of KQs....We beat only KQs...thus we win with probability 4/31....if we check/call the EV of our action will be

(7.75)(4/31) - 1(27/31) = 4/31 BB ...... about 1/8 of a BB

The question is "Does he 3-bet with KQs?"...... if yes you have a marginally EV play by check/calling the river......if no.....then you should check/fold the river....