Live betting = Craziness??

[Mr. 33]

Do any you here do alot of live betting? I just spent the last 3+ hours in full stress mode firing live bet after live bet during the ALCS game. I have been a little hesitant doing live betting, thinking it was mostly "sucker" type lines until I started watching it a little more closely. There are some ridiculously profitable lines at some points. For example, I took the under before the game started at 8.5u, +116. After the top of the 1st, the live line was 8.5o, +126. How is that not crazy?? $1000 on the initial under could be scalped for $204. Since live betting is like crack, I waited to act after the A's batted, hoping to get a better line, but they scored. Also, since live betting is like crack, bets and teams can get mixed up. I took the Tigers at +162 after the 1st, and did the ultimate scalp in the middle of the second with the Tigers -105 (yes, I meant to take the A's at -109). Luckily, I didn't panic right away and waited and left it alone. I know someone mentioned that scalping live is -EV, but when games are in the early stages or even just tied, it has to be a decent play. Thoughts on the whole live betting? I think I placed 15 bets tonight, and ended up + $quite a bit and +heartburn. Talk about waiting on every pitch!

[brendanb438]

Live betting like this is fun, until it starts to go horribly wrong. Just be careful because you will end up on the wrong side of those live lines sometimes and have to decide between losing half of what you invested or losing it all. And when you decide to cut your loses all of a sudden the miracle happens and you would have won those bets, but you got out. Heartburn is the least of it, when it goes horribly wrong you will want to slam your head into the wall.

-Brendan

[Howling]

You will get grinded down big time if you keep trading back and forth during the same game. You need to look for a spot you think is +EV (Obviously) and whack it.

During game 1 of the Oak/Det series I took the 'under 8.5' Tiger game when it dropped to 28 ($28 to win $72) after the tigers jumped out to a 5-0 lead in the fourth. I didn't think Oakland would put up anything the way it was going, and 28 looked like great value.


Like any bet you must have a solid reason to justify the price.

[Thremp]

Word. Good advice.

Some people momentum trade. I've done this before when I felt it was justified (bottom of a batting order coming up etc). Sometimes you can just find square live lines and just bet them straight like you would any errant line.

Football is very counterintuitive you'll find. Prices typically peak on a goal line drive and then will drop when a team smashes it in for 6. very strange. Considering the possibility of a stop or TO. but these are the type of things you'll notice as you see these lines cruise along.

[Howling]

Football is where Im tempted to blind bet against the team that scored first. I read (a long while back, years ago) about some data they (writers of the article) had about major sports, NFL, NHL, MLB, in which they showed the winning % of the teams that scored first.

Football was far and away the least affected by a first score (55% of the teams that scored first won).

NBA wasn't included for obvious reasons.

This data reflected just the winner of the game, not vs. spread.

I'm tempted to venture a guess that if you take the cheap price blindly, you might be close to +EV.

Just a thought.

[rawl316]

For the NBA, I like to look at games where teams go on an early run and bet on the other team. All teams usually make a run, and when they do, I'll sell out for profit.

[legend42]

My craziest adventure with live betting came in last year's Pitt/Indy playoff game.

I had a bunch down at Pitt +10 at various prices before and thoughout the game. When Pitt was up by 18, I started scalping some of it back on the Indy ML.

The Colts got the ball down by 3 at their own 20 with about 2:30 left in the game. The live line kept shifting towards the Colts until they were actually a favorite on the ML (everyone sensed a Peyton comeback drive), at which point I had to take the value on the Steelers. Peyton gets sacked twice on the drive, and they turn the ball over on their own 3 with 1:30 on the clock. Sweet!

But apparently this book doesn't realize the Colts still have all their timeouts. For a quick flash, the live line is PITT -25000 (I guess figuring the only way they can lose is a kneeldown fumble). I have to jump on this mistake, and put $500 down (holy sh*t if Indy wins this game that's $125K, plus all the PITT +10 and other Colts ML action).

The line quickly gets adjusted, but I'm in and still somewhat kicking myself for eating into my profits, because we all know a disheartened Colts D is probably going to let Bettis roll in for the clinching TD. But no, he FUMBLES! And Nick Harper is running the other way, with the BALL! OMFG! Roethlisberger tackles him! WTF!

My head is spinning. Manning completes two passes to get into FG range. 30 seconds left. They're going to win this game! I think about max-scalping Pitt, but for some reason I don't. Two plays later, my fate rests on Vanderjagt, who hasn't missed a FG at home all year. I'm barely conscious as I see something that looks like one of my 7-irons from a buried lie out of heavy rough wobbling through the air, missing the right post by a conservative 50 feet. What a pisser.

[136913691369]

Great story. I think I would of murdered Vanderjagt if it happened to me.

[rush66]

That story is the definition of insanity.