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#1
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I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....
81 left, 80 pay, party 30+3$ (800/1600, some small ante)
Table has been moderate in terms of bubble tightness, big stacks have been opening more than there cards dictate, as you expect. SB has 13k, and is not playing anything less than TT, AQ here. Button: 44K min-raises to 3.2K SB folds Hero (29k) K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Obviously I have F.E. on a jam, but his ramge should be tight enough that K9s = 72o here. I have only been at the table for 2 orbits, and guy has raised 2-3 times and won uncontested. Can I actually call here. It feels right, but it also feels like I am being a P#&$%. My problem is there is no real bubble here, since he has me covered, and I am assuming he isnt sharpe enough to tighten my range due to the bubble. **obviously I call, more streets to come |
#2
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Re: I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....
If you jam, are you pushing because you think you are ahead of his range, or because you are restealing?
I don't think you are ahead of his range, and restealing here has more risk, so just call. |
#3
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Re: I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....
[ QUOTE ]
If you jam, are you pushing because you think you are ahead of his range, or because you are restealing? I don't think you are ahead of his range, and restealing here has more risk, so just call. [/ QUOTE ] umm... jamming because you're 'ahead of his range' is meaningless unless you're ahead of his calling range (hint, K9 is not ahead of his calling range) so yeah, it'd obviously be a resteal, but I think it's a pretty easy one and one that is certainly +cEV, probably +$EV (bubble blah blah, I personally never pay attention to the mtt bubble except in extreme circumstances because I generally don't care in the least about cashing, but I digress), and probably more +$EV than calling. I just think you're folding to a cbet a ton here and I think a ton of those times he would have folded to a reraise preflop. that said, I'm curious where this hand is going |
#4
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Re: I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....
I'd probably just call, then re-evaluate the flop.
You're being offered a good price on a hand that could easily lead to something tasty, and if the flop comes low, you can lead into it. If not, you've only lost 1xBB. I know it's passive, but the min-raise scares me.. unless he's a complete idiot and is going for a cheap steal. |
#5
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Re: I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you jam, are you pushing because you think you are ahead of his range, or because you are restealing? I don't think you are ahead of his range, and restealing here has more risk, so just call. [/ QUOTE ] umm... jamming because you're 'ahead of his range' is meaningless unless you're ahead of his calling range (hint, K9 is not ahead of his calling range) so yeah, it'd obviously be a resteal, but I think it's a pretty easy one and one that is certainly +cEV, probably +$EV (bubble blah blah, I personally never pay attention to the mtt bubble except in extreme circumstances because I generally don't care in the least about cashing, but I digress), and probably more +$EV than calling. I just think you're folding to a cbet a ton here and I think a ton of those times he would have folded to a reraise preflop. that said, I'm curious where this hand is going [/ QUOTE ] Restealing would be +EV and so that is always an option here. However, hero clearly didn't and I would like to know whether all of his raises pre-flop were min and, if not, what hereo thinks that a min here signifies. Funkii, nice simple logic that villain folds a lot to a pre-flop resteals but hero folds to a lot of flop c-bets but hero is to act first. Isn't hero generally leading 2/3 pot here, if hero calls pre-flop, somewhat, but not particularly, based on the texture of the flop. |
#6
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Re: I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If you jam, are you pushing because you think you are ahead of his range, or because you are restealing? I don't think you are ahead of his range, and restealing here has more risk, so just call. [/ QUOTE ] umm... jamming because you're 'ahead of his range' is meaningless unless you're ahead of his calling range (hint, K9 is not ahead of his calling range) so yeah, it'd obviously be a resteal, but I think it's a pretty easy one and one that is certainly +cEV, probably +$EV (bubble blah blah, I personally never pay attention to the mtt bubble except in extreme circumstances because I generally don't care in the least about cashing, but I digress), and probably more +$EV than calling. I just think you're folding to a cbet a ton here and I think a ton of those times he would have folded to a reraise preflop. that said, I'm curious where this hand is going [/ QUOTE ] Restealing would be +EV and so that is always an option here. However, hero clearly didn't and I would like to know whether all of his raises pre-flop were min and, if not, what hereo thinks that a min here signifies. Funkii, nice simple logic that villain folds a lot to a pre-flop resteals but hero folds to a lot of flop c-bets but hero is to act first. Isn't hero generally leading 2/3 pot here, if hero calls pre-flop, somewhat, but not particularly, based on the texture of the flop. [/ QUOTE ] umm... I dunno what hero is doing if he calls, but I don't think you can say that he is 'generally calling a button minraise and leading out' as that line doesn't happen very often, at least in my experience. Anyway, with that line, I think you're EXTREMELY likely to get bluff raised off of it, I know if someone called a minraise on the bubble and then led into me I would be about 90% sure that they were folding to a push. Just shove. |
#7
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Re: I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....
He had not min-raised that I remembered before. In fact I didnt remember him raising at all, just noticed that his PA HUD stats were over 15% for PFR in something like 20 hands.
I decided not to resteal, b/c I have no real reason too. (I was deep in other events at the time, so I wast paying close enough attention). Sure, my hand is pretty good, but I am deep enough that my hand doesnt matter unless it has equity vs his call range (which it doesnt). But, I am getting 4-1 here, and have a better than average hand. In my experience, I havent found a min-raise to mean anything consistently enough to use it here. So I call. Flop (7650) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Hero? |
#8
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Re: I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....
You could try a reraise; it smells like a cheap steal to me. He's been winning PF uncontested; have all his PF bets been minimum raises? You could raise him to about half your stack or a little less. I don't really like the call out of position, though.
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#9
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Re: I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....
[ QUOTE ]
You could try a reraise; it smells like a cheap steal to me. He's been winning PF uncontested; have all his PF bets been minimum raises? You could raise him to about half your stack or a little less. I don't really like the call out of position, though. [/ QUOTE ] This sounds awful. |
#10
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Re: I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....
I'd prefer a call/bet out on flop as opposed to a preflop resteal here.
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