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#1
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NL100 - Bottom set fold
I can count the number of times I have folded a set on the flop on one hand. I know the flop is drawy, but I just couldn't see this guy 4betting the flop with anything other than a made hand or a monster draw. Is this fold OK?
Villain is 21/10/1.3 after 200 hands Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 10 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) BB: $105.55 Hero (UTG+2): $125.73 Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (10 Players) 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, 6 folds, BB calls $2.00 Flop: ($6.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $10.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $30.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $50.00</font>, Hero folds |
#2
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Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
No way I fold here.
Give him a range of 88, 77, 87s, 85s, 75s, and some monster draws like 65 of diamonds or A9 of diamonds. Folding here is a mistake. EDIT: I forgot to include 96s and 64s. Doesn't really change things because you can draw out on those and there is already a ton of money in the pot. |
#3
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Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
Ok, I pokerstoved it.
I gave him a range of 88, 77, 87s, 85s, 75s, 96s, 64s, 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Against that range you have 37.7% equity. Given you already have $33 invested, you have to shove. |
#4
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Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
AGREED, folding here is bad
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#5
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Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I pokerstoved it. I gave him a range of 88, 77, 87s, 85s, 75s, 96s, 64s, 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Against that range you have 37.7% equity. Given you already have $33 invested, you have to shove. [/ QUOTE ] Homerun! :-) |
#6
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Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
Equity of hero after shoving should be 38% so even with the wide range of SABR this isn't an instashove. And I think this villain isn't playin A5d, A6d, 85d against and UTG-raiser, he isn't ultraloose. 6d9d I also doubt so that is making it more even. Second would a villain play 75s or 87s like this? Maybe because he thinks hero has an overpair, but other times he will suspect he is beat. I think shoving and folding are close. I lean towards folding.
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#7
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Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
[ QUOTE ]
Equity of hero after shoving should be 38% so even with the wide range of SABR this isn't an instashove. [/ QUOTE ] I thought I gave him a pretty tight range postflop. [ QUOTE ] And I think this villain isn't playin A5d, A6d, 85d against and UTG-raiser, he isn't ultraloose. 6d9d I also doubt so that is making it more even. [/ QUOTE ] He's calling 2 BB to see a flop with a suited connector or gapper. Notice I only gave him suited cards (for non-pairs). A player with his stats is calling those all day. [ QUOTE ] Second would a villain play 75s or 87s like this? Maybe because he thinks hero has an overpair, but other times he will suspect he is beat. [/ QUOTE ] If you called a raise with small suited cards and flopped two pair, why would you ever fold for 100BB? |
#8
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Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
[ QUOTE ]
Equity of hero after shoving should be 38% so even with the wide range of SABR this isn't an instashove. [/ QUOTE ]Math says otherwise. At 38% equity hero is winning on average $8.21 everytime he pushes given the amount of money in the pot. I don't think he has A6dd/A5dd/65dd/T9dd because he's probably going to push those instead of minreraise them so that drops the equity a bit. At 38% equity you'd have to be roughly $139 deep to fold this. |
#9
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Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
[ QUOTE ]
No way I fold here. Give him a range of 88, 77, 87s, 85s, 75s, and some monster draws like 65 of diamonds or A9 of diamonds. Folding here is a mistake. EDIT: I forgot to include 96s and 64s. Doesn't really change things because you can draw out on those and there is already a ton of money in the pot. [/ QUOTE ] I agree, thanks for your thoughts. I am not known for finding folds and I actually 5bet pushed the flop - and was shown 88. I have started to open raise 3bb from EP and I know that a result of this is that I need to factor in lighter calls, especially from BB. Looks like I wasn't too far out in my estimation of his range. |
#10
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Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
You can't fold here. You are simply getting too good a price, even if you are behind, which is admittedly often.
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