Another 100nl hand for erryone takin shots at it: AA on monotone flop

[kaz2107]

well sense it seems like lots of micros r close to 100nl and thus postin a few 100nl hands here more recently here is one i played recently that my strike up some discusion. note stack sized fa sho

STAGE #595945535: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $1 - 2007-03-07 01:53:27 (ET)
Table: CITRUS HEIGHTS (Real Money) Seat #1 is the dealer
Seat 1 - MNPOKERKING ($92.32 in chips)
Seat 2 - HERO ( <font color="green"> $199 in chips </font> )
Seat 3 - SULCATA ($133.35 in chips)
Seat 4 - THANGBAIHAI ($60.85 in chips)
Seat 5 - Villian ( <font color="green"> $228.28 in chips </font> )
Seat 6 - WYLDTHING89 ($215.25 in chips)
JUMPMANHOLLA - Posts small blind $0.50
SULCATA - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
THANGBAIHAI - Calls $1
Villian - Raises $4 to $4
WYLDTHING89 - Folds
MNPOKERKING - Folds
HERO - Raises $13.50 to $14
SULCATA - Folds
THANGBAIHAI - Folds
Villian - Calls $10
*** FLOP *** [9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
HERO - Bets $21
Villian - All-In(Raise) $214.28 to $214.28
HERO????


Reads...
Villian is a laggy reg who plays around 29 23 3.5 he is dece and deffinalty isnt scared to make a big bluff or two. my note on him says he calls my 3 bets lite but also that i had been 3 betting him a lot (but this is tha 2nd hand at tha table so i have no idea if he remebers i was 3 betting him light bfore or not???)

so anyways wut r u doin here being 200 bbs deep and the monotone flop?? call or fold?

PS
sorry tha converter doesnt seem to b workin now that i am back from break

[dirtylobster]

Why take the chance? If he's so eager to shove his chips you'll probably get a better chance.

[boycalledroy]

Yeah you could be drawing almost dead here. Wait til you have some live stuff!

[Asheh]

Always leave urself outs, im calling with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Ax here only

[Tickner]

I'd snap call this. It could easily be the Ah or an overpair. It will also be a set a small % of the time. I havent run any numbers in pokerstove, but I am almost positive that calling is good here. He wont have a flush very often IMO because a flush would much prefer to raise to $80 or so and hope that YOU push.

As matrix said, with the Ah its a super easy call. But, even without it, I'd argue that calling here is the best play.

GELFORD/Martix, I quickly skimmed the posts, and you said that you ran numbers and its 50/50? If thats true, I hope you realize that if it really is 50/50 calling is clearly correct because of the dead money.

[kaz2107]

for all of u asking for more info i pretty much gave u all i had at the time. i dont take super notes and hadnt been in this spot bfore against villian. as i said i had couple hundo hands on him but they had all been from a while ago as i hadnt played in about a week at least and this was my 2nd hand at the table. so i cant really help u much there but so goes poker and we r often not given great reads n e wayz

i think this really comes down to how strongly he plays his made hands. and here is my thinking in regards to this. why on earth would he be shoving 200bbs with a flush here. that seems ludacris to me. we r 200bbs deep thus 3 betting preflop happens in a much wider range (i am assuming he relazes this) as well as the fact that he has been playin laggy thus gets 3 bet lighter again. so he cant put me on a narrow 3 bet range even tho i am sorta nitty. im deffinatly not only 3 betting here with KK+ and my range is much larger then that. obv he doesnt directly kno that but he must realize that it is relatively a wide range. but so why would he think i have such a strong hand in this spot and think that i could call off 200bbs when i havent shown a ton of strength up to this point.

given this idea and tha fact that he is makin such a large over bet here i think i can make one of 2 conclusions for tha most part. A. his hand is rather vulnerable and he thinks he is ahead but has the possability of being draw out on (ie. an overpair, 2 pair a set, or maybe even tha ocassional tp type hand) OR B. that he needs some FE to make his hand more profitable (ie. lone flush draw, weak combo draw, or a complete bluff.) He has to realize that he has a decent amount of FE due to the fact that i have yet to show a ton of strength (all i have done is 3 bet pre and then cbet) so considering how deep we r FE should b rather high as i will make this same 2 actions with much weaker holdings and will b forced to fold a ton to this push.

now i honestly think that those hands i just listed are the majority of his range and a reason why i dont like pokerstove numbers all that much. every possible hand is given an equal value and in this case i dont think that makes much sense as i just dont seem him playin that way with some of the hands listed in his range all that frequently where i see others that i think r much more likely. this is why i think tha range where it is 50/50 is slightly higher because i think tha made flushes arent going to do this all that often thus should b given a lower proportion in this range. i dont think it is all that possible to really make these calculations (altho if some one thinks they can do it go for it [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) but i think that common sense tells us that if it is 50/50 while sayin him havin a flush is just as likely as havin a vulnerable hand such as KK no hearts or even sumtin like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or w/e then obv my equity rises.

and last night i was thinkin about tha hand some more and also thought about wut Tickner said about all the dead money in tha pot. this also makes tha call even more profitable (something i didnt even consider all that much at the time of the call) but again if i am 50/50 exactly at the time he shoves it is a clear call since i have already invest a decent amount of money and thus am gettin better then 1:1 odds on the call.

[matrix]

[ QUOTE ]

I quickly skimmed the posts, and you said that you ran numbers and its 50/50? If thats true, I hope you realize that if it really is 50/50 calling is clearly correct because of the dead money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am still not sure it's 50/50 - as previously stated if it's 50/50 or better a call is "correct"

I am just saying that I don't call this deep unless there's a LOT of dead money going begging (there is 15% of starting stacks here so not that much) if I think my edge is &lt; 3% or so.

Having run some numbers - some ranges came out 50/50 - the push range *I* would use in villains spot if I was playing LAG here has villain as a 60/40 fav.

I think a lot comes down to how well rolled you are - what your tolerance for variance is and what losing 200BB from your roll would do to your frame of mind later in the session.

All things being equal if you have the roll - and can lose this stack and reload with a smile without it tilting you and affecting your later play - by all means go for it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Maybe this effect is a little lesser playing at Absolute (?) where you can simply rebuy to 200BB's rather than being stuck with buying in for 100BB's.

I have noticed that my game suffers if I misplay a big pot early in a session and make a stupid call - so overall bearing all that in mind I still lean towards folding this.

kaz:

[ QUOTE ]
why on earth would he be shoving 200bbs with a flush here. that seems ludacris to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

because people call with all kinds of stuff. If he is a decent reg - and plays LAG lots - and therefore is a decent LAG I think it's more likely he shows up here with a set/flush/combo draw - and you're very very unhappy to see any of those hands (as you'd be a 60/40 dog then at best)

If he's a lagdonk and is just generally overaggro and overplays onepair hands too much - then with that read I call here as I'd be much happier putting him on a lesser overpair with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Think about it - after all your thoughts at the time and discussion with your friend you read him for a weaker hand - you decided that 1pair was a big enough favourite here to play for stacks. A good LAG uses that and very rarely out and out pushes a hand that doesn't have you cooked here - because if say he has KhKx his push is shockingly bad - cos what worse hands are going to call??

Good LAGs pick up small pot after small pot with aggression - they almost never risk their entire stacks to do that when a large scary bet will suffice. When a good LAG pushes their entire stack into the middle they either have:

a) a solid read that villain will fold to a push but not fold to a lesser bet
- or -
b) a GREAT hand thats almost certainly a favourite over villains hand.

LAGs that frequently push stacks in without either of these are NOT decent LAG players imho.

LAGs that go too far with their stack and push too often where only better hands call them tend to go broke rather fast I think.

dying to know the results here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[barryc83]

Does he ever show up with 999 or 888 here? You have to think he wouldnt play a flush like this. Looks more like Ah or a smaller overpair to me. But what do I know, I took a 5 BI shot at 100nl this weekend and lost it all.

[98Suited]

I think I'd fold this 200bb deep. Of course this might be a draw, but it could also be small flush/2-pair if he calls your 3-bets light, a set

[kaz2107]

lets put villian on some sort of a range both preflop and on the flop please instead of these one line responses that dont help n e one. kthnx