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#1
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Basic implied odds checkup
Just need to make sure that the following implied odds calculation is correct if somebody would care to help.
150 in the pot on the flop. I have a flush draw villain has a set. 500 remain in our stacks. Villain bets 100. My implied odds of calling this bet assuming I can get it in 100% of the time on any turn are: (if I hit my 8 outer on the turn I will win 77% of the time) .77(150 + 500) - .23(500) = 385.5 making my implied odds 385.5 to 100 or 3.85 to 1. Odds of hitting the 8 outer are 4.87 to 1 So this would be a losing call. Is the above correct? Thanks in advance to anybody who is willing to do this one. |
#2
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Re: Basic implied odds checkup
The probability you win is 9/47*0.77 ~ 14.74%
Your implied odds are 650:100 which means you need to win at least 1/7.5 ~ 13.33% . Or , you win $650 , 14.74% of the time . You lose $100 , 85.26% of the time . EV= 650*0.1474 - 100*0.8526 =$ 10.55 which is positive . |
#3
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Re: Basic implied odds checkup
Can anybody refer me to a good link to learn these equations?
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#4
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Re: Basic implied odds checkup
Jay, thanks for replying. However, we only have 8 outs not 9 ( ~13.1% when run through your calc there). Also, I don't see where you account for the 23% of the time we hit on the turn but lose our stack?
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#5
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Re: Basic implied odds checkup
I think your math is right. However you have to know he has a set- if he has 2 pair and will stack off, then you win 650 90.5% and lose 500 9.5% for an expectation of 540 if you hit, which is plenty (5.4:1). It's easy to make a call that's wrong against his exact hand, but correct against his range.
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#6
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Re: Basic implied odds checkup
Let me do this again with 8 outs .
650*0.131 -100*39/47 - 500*8/47*0.23 = -17.403 so it's negative EV . Sorry , I screwed up the first time . You lose $100 , 39 out of 47 times . You lose an additional 500 when you hit (8/47) times the probability you get outdrawn(0.23) . |
#7
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Re: Basic implied odds checkup
Don't worry about the exact computations.
Implied odds just imply that you will win more than the real odds. If the odds are say 3 to 1 against, even if there's a little less than 3 to 1 in the pot, you can still call. But don't go overboard and expect opponent to always pay off. |
#8
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Re: Basic implied odds checkup
[ QUOTE ]
Let me do this again with 8 outs . 650*0.131 -100*39/47 - 500*8/47*0.23 = -17.403 so it's negative EV . [/ QUOTE ] This is the one I wanted. So easy but it just wasn't coming out properly when I was trying it. I think I was overcomplicating things. I know that this wasn't a realistic situation. I just wanted to know how to work it out. I can use this to work out some rules of thumb for this kind of situation. Thanks for the help. |
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