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#1
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NL pennant, am i missing something?
611 Chicago Cubs +725
612 Arizona Diamondbacks +125 613 Philadelphia Phillies +805 614 Colorado Rockies +135 betting on both arizona and colorado is a virtual lock, no? even if one of them happens to ckoke, the other would still be a favorite in the next series. |
#2
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Re: NL pennant, am i missing something?
Yes, you are missing something.
Neither Division series is over yet. |
#3
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Re: NL pennant, am i missing something?
[ QUOTE ]
even if one of them happens to ckoke, the other would still be a favorite in the next series. [/ QUOTE ] Whoa, I didn't even see that part. If one of them chokes, you have already lost one bet. Also, the other wouldn't neccesarilly be a favorite. |
#4
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Re: NL pennant, am i missing something?
i know neither series is over. i'm not really a sports bettor, i didnt know if the numbers match the realistic odds of neither colorado or arizona making the world series.
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#5
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Re: NL pennant, am i missing something?
[ QUOTE ]
i know neither series is over. i'm not really a sports bettor, i didnt know if the numbers match the realistic odds of neither colorado or arizona making the world series. [/ QUOTE ] http://playoffodds.blogspot.com/2007...yoff-odds.html |
#6
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Re: NL pennant, am i missing something?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i know neither series is over. i'm not really a sports bettor, i didnt know if the numbers match the realistic odds of neither colorado or arizona making the world series. [/ QUOTE ] http://playoffodds.blogspot.com/2007...yoff-odds.html [/ QUOTE ] crockpot, I'm curious as to how you have Colorado as "only" 85.3 to advance to the LCS? Flipping coins, they would have a 87.5% chance. Two of three games left are in Coors. If Philly wins tonight, they may be sending Hamels out on three days rest tomorrow out of desperation. This is not a good spot for a young pitcher returning from an injury. Colorado, on the other hand, can hold back Francis to pitch on 5 days rest. Colorado has a better Pythagorean record (obviously their schedules were quite different though). So do you have Philly as a significantly better team? I guess you must be on Philly tonight? I would guess Colorado's chances of advancing are closer to 90% than 85%. |
#7
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Re: NL pennant, am i missing something?
PO,
Philly is a better team. |
#8
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Re: NL pennant, am i missing something?
[ QUOTE ]
crockpot, I'm curious as to how you have Colorado as "only" 85.3 to advance to the LCS? [/ QUOTE ] basically, because philadelphia is a better team. it's true that coors helps colorado out, but they also have ubaldo jimenez and josh fogg starting those games. and in case you haven't noticed, the philly lineup is really really good. you can find colorado at about -600 to win the series, so it's not like the market thinks i'm horribly wrong. [ QUOTE ] This is not a good spot for a young pitcher returning from an injury. [/ QUOTE ] maybe, but you're not seriously arguing you'd rather throw fogg out there than hamels? if you think hamels is pitching hurt, obviously that's going to change your numbers around, but he looked fine at the end of the regular season. [ QUOTE ] Colorado has a better Pythagorean record (obviously their schedules were quite different though). So do you have Philly as a significantly better team? [/ QUOTE ] colorado also achieved those numbers with aaron cook, rodrigo lopez, and jason hirsh all healthy, and willy taveras patrolling center. philly, if anything, is fielding a better team today than they have most of the season. if my system misses on anything, it may be underrating fielding, so perhaps the rockies deserve an extra boost there. (tulo for ROY!) i don't see that taking them to 90%, however. [ QUOTE ] I guess you must be on Philly tonight? [/ QUOTE ] check the R-D archives. |
#9
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Re: NL pennant, am i missing something?
- betting multiple -EV lines can never become +EV
- when betting a combined line of -669, you want a better downside than your team being a favorite in the LCS - neither of these teams would be favored over chicago or philly anyway |
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