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#1
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give up or bluff river
1$2$ 6 players
hero is in BB with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero checks flop: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] SB checks, Hero bets, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, SB folds turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hero bets, UTG+1 calls river: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hero bets, UTG+1 calls should i c/f this river or does bluffing have value here? |
#2
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Re: give up or bluff river
Just give it up. He limped first in. He is not folding much of anything that you're behind. Does anybody just check call the turn in this spot? I can't see many hands that he's going to fold on that turn.
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#3
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Re: give up or bluff river
You can't check here and let UTG flip ace-high draw for the cheap win. Regardless what UTG has, he played it horribly, and you stand to make tons o' cash off a sucker like this...
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#4
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Re: give up or bluff river
Bet against unknown
This pot is definately worth fighting for. He could be easily on a draw and bluff bet if checked to. A high might give up as well. |
#5
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Re: give up or bluff river
bet for sure. KJ J9 AsXs and KsXs make up enough hands that fold now
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#6
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Re: give up or bluff river
Board is sooo drawy, I'd bet it unless I know villain calls down very light.
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#7
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Re: give up or bluff river
I think this is a clear bet even if they call down very light.
The point isnt to fold out ace high its to fold out his missed draws. Ace high has an easy call here.. if hes calling the turn hes calling the river. Your job is to asses what % of his range contains missed draws and see wheter its high enough to profitably bluff at the pot. The focus should be on the agression of the player and how lightly they peel the flop. Sometimes you can narrow agressive players distribution down pretty significantly when they just call, because they would have semibluffed a lot of their draws on the flop as well as raised their good hands.. Then again super calling stations have more ace high/low PP hands in their distribution.. But they are also much less likely to haev semi-bluffed their draws. I think because he limped UTG, you can assume a player profile with somewhat passive play and put anything from KJ, to a gutshot that picked up a diamond draw, to a spade draw in his range, as well as eliminate any hand > TP. Against this range you have an easy bet. |
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