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#1
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25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
First the hand
PokerStars Game #11702263380: Hold'em No Limit ($25/$50) - 2007/08/26 - 13:08:28 (ET) Table 'Dembowska' 9-max Seat #5 is the button Seat 1: $tinger 88 ($4950 in chips) Seat 4: louisianaboi ($2896 in chips) Seat 5: sweetluvin7 ($3788.50 in chips) $tinger 88: posts small blind $25 LittleZen: is sitting out louisianaboi: posts big blind $50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to $tinger 88 [9c 9h] LittleZen leaves the table sweetluvin7: raises $100 to $150 $tinger 88: raises $350 to $500 louisianaboi: folds sweetluvin7: calls $350 *** FLOP *** [2s As 4s] $tinger 88: checks sweetluvin7: checks *** TURN *** [2s As 4s] [9d] $tinger 88: bets $750 sweetluvin7: calls $750 *** RIVER *** [2s As 4s 9d] [Ts] $tinger 88: checks sweetluvin7: bets $2538.50 and is all-in $tinger 88: calls $2538.50 Now my thoughts - I'm putting him on a weakish ace here. I think this range is skewed toward suited aces because he may fold weak offsuit aces preflop. I think he'd check back Ax7s on the river or at least bet smaller, and I really don't see KsJx or something taking this line. Thus, I call. Thoughts? |
#2
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Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
I've played a lot vs sweetluvin and I really think he checks behind on the river with any moderate showdown value. He can be very donkish and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him show up with KsTx or something.
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#3
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Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
Just wondering why you feel he doesn't think a weak Ace has showdown value? Why would he turn Ax7s into a bluff?
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#4
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Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
Who said he would turn Ax7s into a bluff
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#5
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Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
I meant just a weak Ace (misread OP's thought).
If he does infact have a weak ace and shoves this river, we cannot consider it for thin value... |
#6
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Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering why you feel he doesn't think a weak Ace has showdown value? Why would he turn Ax7s into a bluff? [/ QUOTE ] Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs. |
#7
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Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
[ QUOTE ]
Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this is true, and even if it was, sweetluvin sucks a lot so it wouldn't be that relevant |
#8
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Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Well game theory wise he has to be bluffing here some of the time, especially against an excellent/observant player like Stinger. Since it's impossible for him to have air here, he should be turning some made hands into bluffs. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this is true, and even if it was, sweetluvin sucks a lot so it wouldn't be that relevant [/ QUOTE ] So you think he should never been bluffing here? Becuase he never ever ever has a hand without showdown value. Don't you think that might be a recipe for suicide v. Stinger? |
#9
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Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
[ QUOTE ]
I've played a lot vs sweetluvin and I really think he checks behind on the river with any moderate showdown value. He can be very donkish and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him show up with KsTx or something. [/ QUOTE ] I've played with him some as well and I totally agree with this. When I read Stinger's initial logic it made sense and I tended to thin kcalling was OK. But the more I think about it I really think that a hand like ksx is very possible and even likely. Or a pair with a spade in it. I actually don't like a call here the more and more I think about it. Certainly not a no brainer fold here for sure though. |
#10
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Re: 25/50 I have a set, river 4 flushes and I call?
Would sweetluvin call with a hand like A7o? I tend to think that's pretty poor play to call reraises with bad offsuit aces. And considering the As comes on the flop the only way he can turn a bad ace into a bluff (to get you off AK, AQ, etc..) is by calling with Axo preflop, taking a reasonable line to the river, then shoving to get u to fold a small % of your range (big offsuit aces with no spade), when he can still beat a huge part of your range.
That said I think you've outthought yourself on this one, and I think it's a fold. His check behind on the flop also lends itself to him having a big spade in his hand (though perhaps not the Ks) |
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