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#1
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Which bluff is better?
River bluffs are in vogue on the forums today, so I'll post my attempt. CAZ 20/40 1/2kill Terrible 90/5/.5ish player limps UTG. Late position player calls. SB completes, I check with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Everyone checks. Turn is 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB check, I check, UTG player bets. Folded to me, I call intending a river bluff if my draw misses. River is Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Would you: 1. Bet out as a bluff 2. Check-raise bluff 3. Just fold you idiot |
#2
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Re: Which bluff is better?
Just fold the turn.
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#3
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Re: Which bluff is better?
Why not just fire out on the turn, when it's unlikely that anyone has anything? This "play super-passive with my draw and then bluff when it's too late to represent anything good" is a classic donk play.
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#4
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Re: Which bluff is better?
[ QUOTE ]
Just bet the turn. [/ QUOTE ] And then bet the river. At least that's how I play it, I don't see the point of check/calling the turn and randomly bluffing the river, I would look you up with KJ/KT here probably. |
#5
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Re: Which bluff is better?
I agree that you might. I think that most donkeys don't think like this, and generally fold on the river without a pair. |
#6
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Re: Which bluff is better?
[ QUOTE ]
I agree that you might. I think that most donkeys don't think like this, and generally fold on the river without a pair. [/ QUOTE ] True, but I don't think you are getting a lot of pair hands to fold with this bluff. |
#7
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Re: Which bluff is better?
It depends on what kind of terrible player UTG is.Will he bet the turn without a pair?Will he fold the river with a pair?
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#8
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Re: Which bluff is better?
He's not folding a pair whether you donk or c/r. Being that donking is cheaper than c/r'ing, if you insist on bluffing, donking is the way to do it. Either way this should be read based, depending on whether you think he's pairless or not. So I vote for 3.
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#9
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Re: Which bluff is better?
To those who say 'just check-fold the turn' I feel you are undervaluing the situation, see below. To those who say 'bet the turn' I agree that is a reasonable alternative. I chose to check because there was a decent chance it would get checked through again, and the other opponents in the hand were astute enough to judge I might be stealing and would often raise as a semi-bluff. I'd rather take a free shot at the draw. I'll explain my thinking a little further. This bad player is fairly passive, but even he would bet with a pair, 2nd to last to act. So he has no pair on the flop. When he bets the turn, he has either a six, a flush draw, some other crazy draw, or air. I have about 11-14 outs against a six. I'm getting 3:1 and I expect him to call the river. This would be a narrowly profitable call. Since I have a near zero equity call, the determining factor is if I think I will have a profitable or unprofitable bluff on the river. I have about 10-14 outs against a higher busted hand, and I expect him to sometimes call the river. If he calls 40% of the time I would have nearly zero equity. If he doesn't have a pair, I'm expecting to often win on a river bluff. About 20% of the time his draw will come in, and I'll lose. I'll put his chances of having a six at also about 20%. If I donk bluff the river, I'm investing 1 bet to win 4 bets. I need a 20% success rate to break even. If I check raise bluff the river, I'm investing 2 bets total to win 5 bets. I need a 28% success rate. If I assume that he'll have a hand on the river 40% of the time, I need him to fold a busted hand 33% of the time to a river bet, and 46% of the time to a check-raise. So it would appear betting out is better. But, this doesn't consider the board texture. The river specifically puts a flush possibility and trips possibility on the board. He's a passive player and almost certain to check behind with a 6 now. So, by waiting to see if he bets, I can determine whether a bluff is likely to succeed. His bet will indicate either a missed draw, or a flush. Let's say he bluffs 75% of the time with the missed draw. It's obvious then that _when he bets_ the proportion of missed hands to flushs will be 3:1. Investing 2 to win 5 here requires only a 28% success rate, when he has a missed hand 75% of the time. Therefore, this bluff must be successful in getting him to fold when busted 37% of the time (to break even). Although the break-even percentages are close (37% to 33%) I believe he is more likely to fold when busted to a check-raise then a bet. If he actually folds his hand 60% of the time to a bet, and 80% of the time to a check-raise, then the check-raise is 150% as profitable as a bet. Therefore I would elect to check-raise. The disadvantage of course is when he checks behind I certainly lose. I haven't done a complete analysis but the dominating condition seems likely to be how often he bluffs with a missed draw. If he bluffs 100% of the time, the check-raise bluff is far superior (because he has no hand when betting a higher percentage, and he puts more money in the pot). If he bluffs only 10% of the time then betting out is much better for obvious reasons. Results: I checked and he bet. I check-raised, and he folded. |
#10
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Re: Which bluff is better?
You bring up an interesting point that he's more likely to check behind weak pairs on the river, and only bet as a complete bluff. But I believe you're overlooking some necessary information.
You underestimate the times that villain will bluff with K or J high, and call your c/r -- (not the brightest thing to do, but a certain % of the time this will happen). Also, a certain % of the time villain could have a set or 2 pair on the flop. The bluffing pot odds on the river are actually a little different. The pot is 7 sb's going into the river, requiring a donk bluff to work 22% of the time and a c/r bluff 31% of time. On the turn, you are getting 5-2 on 6 clean outs to the nuts, and some more outs to the non-nut straight and weak pair outs. From your description of villain's bluffing tendencies, you can only gain 2 sb's more from him on the river (since a c/r will actually lose you money when he has a hand) making a turn call purely on implied odds possibly incorrect. For this reason it may be better to donk the river as both a bluff, to get value if you hit, and to be able to fold to a river raise if you hit if he is that passive. All these things point to a river donk play being better than a c/r bluff play, but as you say, they ignore villain's bluffing frequency that you say depends on his hand on the river. You'd have to be extremely sure of villain's river tendencies to make c/r bluffing the river more profitable than donk bluffing, and I don't think you can do that without reasonable history with the villain. Also, like you suggest, if he checks behind with trash, you lose the pot, and in that case your turn call might be incorrect as well. |
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