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#1
04-13-2006, 12:29 AM
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AKd, nice flop, so why\'s he still raising?
Buddy of mine played this at 5/10. I was quite critical of most of the streets (well two for sure).
Hero raises AK [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG, 55/18 UTG+2 cold-calls like he should, MP1 (taggy I think, stats were blurred and I'm given no reads) 3-bets, everyone else folds, Hero caps, Fishy and villain calls. 3 to the flop for 13. Flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Woot! Hero bets, fish folds, Villain raises, Hero 3-bets, Villain caps. 2 for 10.5 Turn is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero bets, Villain raises...hero calls. 2 for 14.5 River is an 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero check/calls. What don't we like? 
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#2
04-13-2006, 01:01 AM
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Re: AKd, nice flop, so why\'s he still raising?
pf looks great, but from the flop on I don't like. I'm not sure what kind of range to give MP1, but since you said you think he was taggy... I'll go off of that. Once hero bets this flop, the fish folds, and the villain raises.. I'm ready to start calling down. This board has lots of potential for us, but once we lose the fish caught in the middle things change drastically. After the pf action and the flop raise if the villain is a standard tag I'm giving him a range like TT+, AQ-AK. Against that range any further raising is usually just costing us to draw while we are trying to catch up, and without the fish caught in the middle a lot of our value from raising dissapears. Even if we do improve on the turn, villain is often going to have pretty big redraws. HU and OOP I really don't want to end up going to the turn for 4 bets, so I call the raise.
On the turn, now we're in serious trouble against his range. QQ just improved, and the only likely holding that we are good against is AK for the chop. I'm c/cing here, and c/fing the river UI.
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#3
04-13-2006, 01:08 AM
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Re: AKd, nice flop, so why\'s he still raising?
turn bet/call is bad. If I bet/call this turn, I'm c/f the river. UI, no more than 2 bets should enter this pot. On the flop, 3 betting isnt horrible. But betting the turn after getting capped is.
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#4
04-13-2006, 01:28 AM
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Re: AKd, nice flop, so why\'s he still raising?
I think you have to three bet that flop, as, with at least 11 outs (taking away the possibility that he has A Q and one queen is dead) you're better than 3/2, and you can more than realistically expect to win this hand the majority of the time. CK/Call turn and C/F river if nothing more hits would be standard line.
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#6
04-13-2006, 02:19 AM
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Re: AKd, nice flop, so why\'s he still raising?
So after the flop raise, I pegged his range at about TT-JJ, KK-AA, AK, AQ, and maybe KQs (I guess QQ could do this too but I think that's less likely). If he won't raise QQ here, we actually have a slight deficit according to Pstove. Even with that, or if I'm off a bit, the thing you have to remember is he's capping the hands that have us in the worst shape (AQ, sets), but might well only call a 3-bet with hands we're in better shape against (KQ, AK, AA?), so by 3-betting we set ourselves up to get more money put in when we're farther behind.
The turn is pretty obvious, I think. I thought the river might be interesting. We basically only chop with AK; anything else we lose to, even most overplayed hands: he'd REALLY have to have lost it to have a worse hand, given the board. The thing about the AK is that I don't think he plays it this aggressively most of the time. I mean, I just call there too, but it probably actually is a close decision.
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#7
04-13-2006, 08:44 AM
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Re: AKd, nice flop, so why\'s he still raising?
[ QUOTE ]
The thing about the AK is that I don't think he plays it this aggressively most of the time. I mean, I just call there too, but it probably actually is a close decision. [/ QUOTE ] After capping preflop, getting the flop capped and bet/calling the turn on a 4 to straight board it makes me think check/calling the river is -1BB in EV against any human being.
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#8
04-13-2006, 08:53 AM
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Re: AKd, nice flop, so why\'s he still raising?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The thing about the AK is that I don't think he plays it this aggressively most of the time. I mean, I just call there too, but it probably actually is a close decision. [/ QUOTE ] After capping preflop, getting the flop capped and bet/calling the turn on a 4 to straight board it makes me think check/calling the river is -1BB in EV against any human being. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, this bothers me. I always call people for taking Ed Miller's advice the wrong way and blindly calling in big pots, hand-reading be damned, and here I just did the same thing. I've become everything I hate.
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#9
04-13-2006, 08:59 AM
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Re: AKd, nice flop, so why\'s he still raising?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The thing about the AK is that I don't think he plays it this aggressively most of the time. I mean, I just call there too, but it probably actually is a close decision. [/ QUOTE ] After capping preflop, getting the flop capped and bet/calling the turn on a 4 to straight board it makes me think check/calling the river is -1BB in EV against any human being. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, this bothers me. I always call people for taking Ed Miller's advice the wrong way and blindly calling in big pots, hand-reading be damned, and here I just did the same thing. I've become everything I hate. [/ QUOTE ] But then again, if this hand was played at party you might have been up against a randomized bot, they seems to rule the place now...
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