NL 200 - facing surprising river bet

[makelovenotwar]

Hi, first reaction was to fold given that villain couldnt have had nut flush draw and he would block bet smaller with the King. Curiosity got the better of me :-)

villain runs at 44/24/1.6 over a really insignificant sample





Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">BB ($94.25)</font>
UTG ($194)
MP ($105.60)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($330.40)</font>
SB ($118.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($15) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($15) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, BB calls $10.

River: ($35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $35</font>, Hero calls $35.

Final Pot: $105

[Aquadougs]

Why not cbet the flop?
The river could be a missed flushdraw. But it could be a 88, A8, AQ, 45 too. I dont think he c/c turn with AK+ b/c of his AF, and flushdraw.. You have to win 33% of the time at the rivercall, so i think it is profitable to call, unless he is very straightforward player at river.

[orange]

bet the flop...river is okay.