NL50 set against possible flush

[dersl]

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $51.70
BB: $50
UTG: $50
Hero (MP): $49.35
CO: $56.85 30/15/2.6/28(60)
BTN: $28.95

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, CO calls $1.75, 2 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.25</font>, CO calls $4.25, BB folds

Turn: ($14) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $9</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $18</font>, Hero calls $9

River: ($50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $26</font>

Easy call? Do you like my turn play? I was not sure whether a shove would be good because there is probably no worse hand that would call a shove...

[thac]

He's pretty aggressive, and he can have A9, AQ, or an ace with a club when he raises the turn. Factor that in with the 20% chance we have to hit our full house, and I think we need to shove the turn.

[matrix]

we beat AQ. er and maybe A9 A7s.

We can't fold the turn to a minraise but...

there are 9 AQ combos left 2 combos of A7s 3 A9s... lets add in half the A9o combos - and sprinkle in a few A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]combos - say about 20ways he has been dealt hands that beat us.

There's a bunch of ways he can have us beat - flopped/turned set - or a flush. If we put a sensiblesh range for hitting a flush into sstove on the turn we get:

Board: Ac 9c 7d Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.840% 48.84% 00.00% 1053 0.00 { AA, QQ, 99, AQs, KcJc, KcTc, Kc8c, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Tc8c, Tc4c, 8c6c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 5c4c, 5c3c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc, AQo, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, AdTc, AhTc, AsTc, Ad9c, Ah9c, Ah9d, As9c, As9d }
Hand 1: 51.160% 51.16% 00.00% 1103 0.00 { 7c7s }

so push the turn.

If he's the kind of player to play any two suited then I'd play it the way you did and probably fold the river cos our turn equity is much worse.

[stillnaive]

Villain's line looks like an obvious flush. If you're just calling, you're about -$.50 EV if you think it's 75% flush, 20% top pair, 5% air, but even that's assuming the player is pretty bad.

[carpe_diem_111]

I agree...Villain looks like obvious flush with call on flop. If he had A, he would probably have re-raised flop. Then extremely aggressive after turn club. I think fold on turn after re-raise.