This does not deserve its own thread (Read the Sticky)

[BobbyLight]

I hate how people toss around the words "lock" and stuff but I'm telling you if you want something that makes sure a door remains shut take a look at the Arizona Cardinals (yes thee ARIZONA Cardinals this weekend at home 4:15 vs the 6-2 Detroit Lions). I've been following the NFL for fifteen years and this is as close as I can find to the l word.

First off I'll break it down into three areas

A) the public
B) the matchups
C) desperation

A) This is the classic trap the public. This line started as the Cardinals as a one and a half point favorite...now it's Arizona +1 and you can probably get them around 1 1/2 maybe even 2 by kickoff. The public (right now 77% are in LOVE with Detroit. They've seen the winning streak---3 in a row---and really think this is a 11-5, 10-6 football team.

B) Which leads me to my next point. Keep in mind this team is 28th in the league in total defense. What has been the strength of the Cardinals for a few years? Wideouts. The Eagles defense in Week 3 hung 56 points on the Lions secondary on an outdoor, away game on grass. The Eagles were playing with Donovan McNabb who was still feeling the effects of his offseason surgery. The Lions made him look Godly. The Lions secondary blows and the Cards receivers are way better than Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis. Expect to have the same scenario for the Cards and Kurt Warner who I believe will break out of his funk at home.

The Cardinals are 3-5 but have been in every football game they have played this year, even with Ken Whisenhunt's annoying quarterback shuffle earlier in the year which messed up a 25-10 loss to the Panthers. That 25-10 loss was closer than the score indicated and can be partially blamed on neither quarterback getting into a rhythm (which was admitted). That problem is no longer an issue.

Let's see the Cardinals at home. Last year, with Leinart at QB (granted) they almost beat the Bears before choking.

They played a tough team at home and they should have won.

This year they played the Steelers at home. They won the game outright. Are the Steelers any good? Well a lot of people have them going 13-3.

In fact the Cardinals are 2-1 at home this year and were compeitive all of last season.

Trends?

Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a straight up loss (which they had against San Francisco).

Cards are 4-1 ATS vs teams with winning records this year. They get up for big games, especially at home.

Is this a big game? Well you would say, hey the Cards are 3-5 how is this a big game? Simple. They are 3-5 but in SECOND place in the NFC West. They beat the first place team, the Seattle Seahawks, and are only a game back. That is point C..desperation.

One more: Lions are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with losing records.

So...

In closing..bet the house, I know I will.

Cardinals 34
Lions 20.

[johnnylovescandy]

A long time Lions fan, this wouldn't be totally shocking, but...

[ QUOTE ]
The public (right now 77% are in LOVE with Detroit. They've seen the winning streak---3 in a row---and really think this is a 11-5, 10-6 football team.

[/ QUOTE ]

Public isn't ALWAYS wrong. Lions probably are the better team here.

[ QUOTE ]
Let's see the Cardinals at home. Last year, with Leinart at QB (granted) they almost beat the Bears before choking.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lions squashed the Bears 2 weeks ago at Soldier Field. Your point?

[ QUOTE ]
Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a straight up loss (which they had against San Francisco)...

[/ QUOTE ]
LOLOL...

[ QUOTE ]
They beat the first place team, the Seattle Seahawks, and are only a game back. That is point C..desperation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cards wouldn't be a game back of hapless Seahawks if they didn't suck. Lions are also only a game back, but that's behind a REAL football team.

[ QUOTE ]
One more: Lions are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with losing records.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL some more. Both these teams have been perennial losers and the game might be close, but Detroit's cranking one more facet of their game into gear every week it seems. Lions are pumped and I just don't see them dropping this game to some shaky choke artists.

[DannyOcean_]

If you are betting the house, you've probably hit your limits at every site right? Sucks you can't bet more on such a sure thing.

Since i'm a nice guy, i'll let you bet more on your lock if you give me Arizona +4. interested?

[siccjay]

I hate myself for jumping on DET early now that I have read into this matchup more. I still like the Lions, but this game is probably rigged for AZ to win.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are betting the house, you've probably hit your limits at every site right? Sucks you can't bet more on such a sure thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, this is the guy betting $5 'dimes'.

Couple of things OP. First, you have the line backwards. It opened Detroit -1 and is now Az -1 or 1.5. Second, those trends at the end of the post are just air.

That being said, I'm on Az too.

[brendanb438]

Damn read the motherfqqking FAQ. This doesn't deserve its own thread. Post in the correct NFL thread or don't post at all. MODs will be locking this thread shortly.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are betting the house, you've probably hit your limits at every site right? Sucks you can't bet more on such a sure thing.

Since i'm a nice guy, i'll let you bet more on your lock if you give me Arizona +4. interested?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you understood his post. He LIKES arizona. He feels they'll win by MORE than 4.

[Tyler Durden]

I got Arizona -1. It's now -1.5. I might lay another couple units on it. Thanks for the writeup.

[BobbyLight]

As far as looking at the schedule the Lions take on the Giants next week and have the Packers down the line. There could definitely be some looking ahead. The talk in Detroit all week is one of utmost confidence...they expect a handy fourteen point win to give them momentum into their "10-6" or better season. Not so fast my friend. They will be looking ahead.

[Jazzy3113]

I have a very large teaser bet (in terms of cash and points) and one the plays is Detroit +14.5

Now im very nervous.

Edit: FWIF, I think the stats like 7-1 ATS after a loss are totally useless, whereas your matchup info is much more valuable.