Deep Semibluff

LearnedfromTV · #1 11-10-2007, 06:16 AM

Thought this might make for good discussion, plus a decent reg called me a nit today and I'd like to get paid off more, so..

Villain seems like a tag, maybe leaning toward aggro, today is the first time I've played with him and he's 25/20/4 over 250 hands across three tables. The only big pot I've seen him play was a threeway allin on the flop, he had AcQc and lost to JJJ and 444 on J94cc. One set bet, one set raised, he shoved. Obv standard.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($199.15)
Button ($280.30)
SB ($378.50)
Hero ($383.65)
UTG ($191.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, SB raises to $8, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($16) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $12, Hero calls $12.

Turn: ($40) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $32, Hero raises to $102

Casper05 · #2 11-10-2007, 06:23 AM

This is good- its a dry board and you say youre a nit, so it would be hard for me to call you with AQ+...make it a little more though...$120ish has a decent amount more FE I think.

LearnedfromTV · #3 11-10-2007, 06:30 AM

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This is good- its a dry board and you say youre a nit, so it would be hard for me to call you with AQ+...make it a little more though...$120ish has a decent amount more FE I think.

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(I'm not really a nit and I probably didn't have that image at this table... standard 20/17 winner type image. I'm pretty sure I would fold AQ to me here, though)

The bet sizing is interesting; you may be right, but it's also true that 102 gives us a full pot sized bet for the river.

What is your river plan if he calls?

Casper05 · #4 11-10-2007, 06:34 AM

well, I think if you really wanted to get it in than you would have raised more on the turn to set up a LESS THAN pot sized river shove....I dunno- I guess what I'm trying to say is that if you raise to this size it should be with the intention of following through on the river because KK/AA and maybe AQ are going to be tempted to call this smaller raise and "reevaluate" on the river...

That said, I would puke at a river shove unimproved....so yeah, raise more on turn [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Fonkey123 · #5 11-10-2007, 06:44 AM

Board didn't really change at all though. Okay QT hit 2 pair and a floated J9 turned the gutshot. I would never fold AQ+ to anyone in this situation.

I think the raise is fine to fold out underpairs, maybe even 99, or T7 or something, but I doubt he ever folds AQ+ here.

Casper05 · #6 11-10-2007, 06:46 AM

Also in regards to betsizing- if he calls 120-130 it is very likely that he is calling the river bet, so I think its cheaper in the longrun in that way as well- it keeps us from having to make a neutral EV shove (at best) when we dont improve on the river...I dont think 102 is enough to be effective enough without a river shove...and I dont think a river shove would be +EV.

Noam Chomsky · #7 11-10-2007, 12:17 PM

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Also in regards to betsizing- if he calls 120-130 it is very likely that he is calling the river bet, so I think its cheaper in the longrun in that way as well- it keeps us from having to make a neutral EV shove (at best) when we dont improve on the river...I dont think 102 is enough to be effective enough without a river shove...and I dont think a river shove would be +EV.

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disagree about a river shove. I like the turn raise if you're shoving the river because it'll be an overbet. Calling this turn than an overbet shove with AQ would be terrible vs most players with the image you described for yourself.

Here's the thing. Against a really good tag, you can call down lighter because as you say he would have raised more on the turn so the river wouldn't be an overbet. But against unknown tags I use this logic and find out all the time that they're just mediocre and can't count.

Speedlimits · #8 11-10-2007, 02:19 PM

I almost always 3bet this pf. As played floating this flop is decent. Turn is kind of questionable because we are repping a really narrow range.

I'd rather float the flop/turn and make a move on any spade/Ace/King/Jack river.

LearnedfromTV · #9 11-10-2007, 04:17 PM

A few thoughts

I did plan to shove most (all?) rivers if he checked (except an ace, I think). This may be wrong but I kinda didn't mind a call, since he can't really just call with a very strong hand (the T of spades made the board a lot wetter), so I thought a call was more likely to mean he had one pair and was testing me rather than trapping.

Not sure if I should value bet smaller when I hit a straight, metagame and all I should shove then too, but in a vacuum a smaller bet might be better.

I screwed the math up a little but I intended to leave a pot sized bet; as it is it's 256 in to 244. Maybe 110 would have been better?

I think that even though I'm repping a narrow range (QT, J9, sometimes set), this might be the kind of situation where he doesn't want to shove the turn with one pair because I never call with worse and then on the river, being forced to call off more than a buyin in a single raised pot with just AQ may be enough to convince him. there's also the fact that there are enough scare cards for the river (spade, J) that will fit with a turn semibluff, if he has trouble with the narrow made hand range I can have on the turn. Even a board pair hits JT, T9, 98 etc, although board pair might be the cards it is correct to give up on, a 2 for example I think I have to give up?).

That said, I can definitely see the logic that would lead a good hand reader to snap me off with a Q or better, I guess I'm partly counting on him rarely having those hands; folding out underpairs, 87, etc on the turn.

NoahSD · #10 11-10-2007, 04:23 PM

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I almost always 3bet this pf....
I'd rather float the flop/turn

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[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]