77 Becomes 3 Barrel Bluff

jk3a · #1 11-04-2007, 12:39 PM

Villain is 17/15/3 thru 300 hands. Seems solid. Early in session, no history, my image should be ok.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $372.85
UTG: $72.70
CO: $218.95
BTN: $194
Hero (SB): $200

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, CO raises to $7, BTN folds, Hero calls $6, BB folds

Flop: ($16) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $11, Hero raises to $34, CO calls $23

Turn: ($84) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $56, CO calls $56

River: ($196) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $103 and is All-In,

BGnight · #2 11-04-2007, 12:42 PM

Puke. Aren't you concerned HE has the flush draw?

Nick Royale · #3 11-04-2007, 12:43 PM

I don't like it. If you're going to take a stab c/r flop and follow up on the turn with some frequency. Stacksizes are not good for following up on the river and the fact that the flush completed doesn't make up for the fact that the bet is only 1/2. Besides if he had a fd himself it's now completed.

jk3a · #4 11-04-2007, 12:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Puke. Aren't you concerned HE has the flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, i thought the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] was a good card to bluff

BGnight · #5 11-04-2007, 12:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Puke. Aren't you concerned HE has the flush draw?

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wow, i thought the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] was a good card to bluff

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What do you put him on when he calls the A turn?

it is when they're more unlikely to be on a draw themselves.

jk3a · #6 11-04-2007, 12:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Puke. Aren't you concerned HE has the flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, i thought the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] was a good card to bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put him on when he calls the A turn?

it is when they're more unlikely to be on a draw themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't think he would call the turn with a naked flush draw, which leaves only A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hands that he can call the turn drawing with. There's only a small # of combos of those anyway. I think he's much more likely to have a stubborn Kx than anything else. Maybe I suck

and I figured K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] generally 3balls the flop, not always obv. If he's calling a naked flush draw on the turn, he can't be too solid.

BGnight · #7 11-04-2007, 01:10 PM

I hear ya, but who ever folds flush draws? Implied odds yo [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
I dunno, looking at it again, if he did have a stubborn KQ then your river barrel is the nuts, but I'm just concerned that a 17/14 is calling the turn on the A.

cs3 · #8 11-04-2007, 01:13 PM

once he calls the turn hes not folding on the river. just give up river.
looks a lot like A4dd/A5dd

jk3a · #9 11-04-2007, 01:19 PM

The river bluff needs to work atleast 35% of the time to show any profit here.

Come on, he can be almost twice as likely to have a flush draw as a King and a river bet shows a profit.

BGnight · #10 11-04-2007, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The river bluff needs to work atleast 35% of the time to show any profit here.

Come on, he can be almost twice as likely to have a flush draw as a King and a river bet shows a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

But how many 17/14's are calling this turn w/ a "stubborn K"?