200NL - TP + OESD vs nitty reg on turn

[Bramsterdam]

Everest Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00/$2.00 (HH Converter by Kreatief)

<font color="blue">Reads: Villain is 15/11/5.2 after 325 hands. His bet size scares me, allthough I haven't got a bet size read. I only flatcall pre-flop, because there where 2 donks in the blinds and I wanted to let them in cheap.</font>

MP3 ($223.15)
CO ($210.00) (Hero)
Button ($359.00)
SB ($191.00)
BB ($374.05)
MP2 ($195.00)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $9.00</font>, Hero calls $9.00, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $7.00,

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ( $28 )
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets $23.00</font>, Hero calls $23.00, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>,

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( $74 )
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets $68.00</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero?

[netstorm]

I cant see him raising QT or QJ preflop (correct me if im wrong?)
So that leaves hands like AQ, sets and overpairs ? Perhaps AK that cbet this flop (could be, judging by his aggresion)

I think a fold would be ok, since youre not getting the (implied) odds for your str. If you think he's able to lay down TPTK and/or overpairs to your push, then shoving isnt out of the question either.

folding &gt; raising &gt; calling

[Paul McSwizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
I cant see him raising QT or QJ preflop (correct me if im wrong?)
So that leaves hands like AQ, sets and overpairs ? Perhaps AK that cbet this flop (could be, judging by his aggresion)

I think a fold would be ok, since youre not getting the (implied) odds for your str. If you think he's able to lay down TPTK and/or overpairs to your push, then shoving isnt out of the question either.

folding &gt; raising &gt; calling

[/ QUOTE ]

I think AK is definitely a big part of his range.

[Bramsterdam]

I think he'd fold AQ to a push, so I pushed. I think that folding would be better in hindsight, because he's serieus when he's double barreling into a 3way pot.

[Paul McSwizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he'd fold AQ to a push, so I pushed. I think that folding would be better in hindsight, because he's serieus when he's double barreling into a 3way pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You also have to consider the fact that he has put in over half his stack, which makes it less likely he'll fold AQ here, even if he feels he is behind. I feel like that psychological aspect takes away some of your fold equity.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he'd fold AQ to a push, so I pushed. I think that folding would be better in hindsight, because he's serieus when he's double barreling into a 3way pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sem-bluffing this hand is pretty awfull.