JJ on the button, 2nd pair

[KaatzMeow]

FTP 9 max limit, end of first orbit
Table VP$P was about 28 with PFR around 7

Villain is UTG is 17.5/6.9/2.3/1390 hands
Hero on the button with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG Open Raises, Hero calls?, SB completes

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 players, 7 SB

SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB folds.(sorry, fixed it)

I did not raise because of his stats.

Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB folds

I guess many would raise here but I wanted to see showdown cheap since an A was well within his range or a bigger PP.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG checks, Hero???

I wanted to bet but have been bitten many times. What does UTG have that will call me if beaten?

Poker Stove has me a 52 to 48 favorite which is a race.
Range I put him on is 99+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs

Is this a standard call down or should I have raised the river on weakness. His stats show that he does C/R river.

[Riku]

What exactly is the flop action ?

Anyway, doesn't really matter, since you should 3bet pf and take it from there.

[BadBigBabar]

has to be a 3bet pf

[RemyXO]

[ QUOTE ]
Poker Stove has me a 52 to 48 favorite which is a race.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, doesn't really matter, since you should 3bet pf and take it from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

[KaatzMeow]

Okay, 3-bet it is.

So if I were UTG and get 3-bet, what had would I cap with?

AQs+, AKo, TT+

So if I got capped, then I would be very wary of most broadway flops.

If UTG just calls then his range is larger but still contains all the overcards I am wary off. I seems that I am investing 1 SB minimum, 2 if capped, to be in the same position since my JJ looks to behind an UTG O/Raiser with a PFR of 6.9. I still will be going into c/c mode on the flop.

[bellatrix]

I don't get it that you didn't raise pre-flop, because of the stats. Are you "slowplaying" your JJ? Are you afraid UTG holds better cards? This is exactly the kind of situation where you 3-bet a good opponent.

Flop or turn you have to make a decision. Are you gonna call down? Looks like it and it's not a bad line to take. You could raise the turn to get the PP out, but I'm not so sure.

The river check now almost screams: "I don't have an Ace". So bet, you might have some FE to get KK, QQ out. Fold if raised.

By the way, the hand plays very differently if you raised PF

[bozlax]

kaatz, this is a stupid discussion. 'stove has you as a 52 to 48 favorite ON THE RIVER with two aces out. Preflop, you're behind 18 hands, tied with 1, and ahead of, uh, lesse, 42 HANDS! If you get capped pre, or a broadway falls somewhere and he gets aggro, you fold.

How do you feel about this scenario? You smooth call pre, the flop comes J82r, he checks, you bet, he folds. Wheeeeeee!

Do not base your decisions on the worst possible thing that might happen. Yes, you might get capped, and then the flop comes AJx, and a jack turns and an ace rivers and you cap every street and your quad jacks loses to quad aces. So what? You made the best decision you could make at each opportunity, based on the solid information at hand, not based on extreme cases.

Aaaaargh! So many posters in this forum do this, only considering the hands that might beat you, or it's even more evil sibling, only considering the hands you might beat. "Well, I've got black aces on a 4-heart board...I think I should cap the river for value, because this guy is a donkey that will play hard with anything that matches the board." Only you're doing it for future streets! You realize that if all you're worried about is broadways, that's only 1/3 of the deck, right?

And, fwiw, the way you played it, when he fires the third barrel on the turn, lay it down. You're getting 5:2 on a showdown, and decided you're drawing to 2 outs preflop.

[neurotiq]

3bet it PF. You say you didn't because of his stats, but JJ is still ahead of a 6.9% PFR.