Overvaluing Bullets (AA)?

lanyi · #1 10-27-2007, 05:06 PM

I was faced with this tricky situation where the villain shows surprise agression on the turn after just calling the flop. The turn card to me was a blank so I figured he was bluffing afrer capping my reraise. My evaluation was that he must have paired with the board and I figured my overpair was best. I want to know if:
(A) was my rerasie a mistake (would a call or fold been prefreable)
(B) after he capped my rerasie should I figure to be behind at this point? Is my call me being too attcahed to the owe so famous pocket rockets or does my reasoning stand up.

Villains stats after 23 hands are 35/4/7.5

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) Ultimate Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 folds, Button caps, Hero calls.

River: (15 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Xylocain · #2 10-27-2007, 05:24 PM

:g:
Call down from turn raise. You are ahead like never. 3-betting in this big but not gigantinormous pot results in 2 things; MP1 folding and you getting pwned by a better hand. As played the river call is reeeeeeealy marginal but I dont fold AA for 1 either.

DavidC · #3 10-27-2007, 05:30 PM

nah, that's not a terrible hand or anything. Sometimes you're behind, but I still like a three-bet.

ckj · #4 10-27-2007, 05:32 PM

I think button has A9 here often enough to 3 bet. I call down from the cap and expect to see 99 some of the time, and a 4 some of the time.

lanyi · #5 10-27-2007, 05:35 PM

2 questions Xy:
1. If as you say I can't be ahead why call? How many outs do you figure I have? 4? (for the boat). What do you put villain on at this point? How is calling profitable
2. What is "pwned"? Unfamiliar with this term

As for the river call. With the pot the size it was it really was an easy call. At that point I'm getting sufficent odds.

Xylocain · #6 10-27-2007, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
2 questions Xy:
1. If as you say I can't be ahead why call? How many outs do you figure I have? 4? (for the boat). What do you put villain on at this point? How is calling profitable

[/ QUOTE ]

I was exaggerating with the never part ... but I dont think you are ahead often enough to raise for value. What hands calls 1 million bets pre flop, then slowplays the flop and pops the turn? It can be A9 ... but thats pretty much it since any two pair will be behind to an overpair.

What you must also consider is the times you are ahead you will gain 1 more bet when your 3-bet is called but you also lose 1 bet from MP that may call 1 but not 2. In addition, when you are behind (and you are often behind) you will be behind to a hand that caps and then you have to put 2 more in when behind and you dont have the overlay from the folder.

OTOH you are ahed more than ... whatever the pot lays you so calling down from the turn raise seems good.

[ QUOTE ]
2. What is "pwned"? Unfamiliar with this term

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Its internet lingo for owned (if you think about it you'll figure it out [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

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As for the river call. With the pot the size it was it really was an easy call. At that point I'm getting sufficent odds.

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Think about how the pot got that big, do you really think Villan caps turn with a worse hand?

Sushiglutton · #7 10-27-2007, 06:14 PM

Nah I just call down. Looks more like a slow-plyed four. Very aggro stats but too few hands to draw any interesting conclusions. What have you seen so far.

lanyi · #8 10-28-2007, 02:30 PM

Thanks for all the input guys.

Xy, you are of course correct, the pot getting big was my fault. And the 3-bet should have been a worry sign. The result btw was that villain had pocket 4's and had flopped quads. The major reason I posted this hand was because I got suckered the EXACT SAME WAY not 2 weeks ago (see my previous post). Then the game was NL and villain had pocket 10's and me with bullets (again) and he flopped quads and I eneded up paying off too much (yet again). Becuase of the proximity of me getting "outflopped" with bullets to small-medium pocket pairs flopping quads I wanted to know if I may be overvaluing my hand. Maybe having too much trouble giving it up? Is this just a bad beat or am I making a repeated mistake? From my POV I think I may have overplayed this hand and have not given enough credit to villain for having more of a hand. I was too keen to see the turn agression as bluffing and not as a slowplay.

HermannTL · #9 10-29-2007, 02:47 PM

With AA I have a problem distinguishing overplaying from betting for value. On this I think I would call the turn raise and c/c the river. Without the turn raise I would bet the river then sigh at the inevitable raise and then I'd make a crying call.

Xylocain · #10 10-29-2007, 02:54 PM

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Xy, you are of course correct,

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wow, thats a first [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] I knew I had it in me.

[ QUOTE ]
the pot getting big was my fault.

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This is not correct. The pot got big because Villan had a monster hand.

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I was too keen to see the turn agression as bluffing and not as a slowplay.

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The turn raise is basically bad news, and the turn cap is ... well, its not 2,7o thats for sure.