25 NL 3rd nut flush !

DickieBets · #1 10-29-2007, 12:08 AM

MP was a very fishy player - 81/16/5 - despite his loose play preflop he was decent postflop !

I had seen him lead out weak with a draw and with a weak 2 pair - that's why I check raised - I figured he'd be drawing to something on that board.

I have no idea how to evaluate the strength of my hand here ? Any help on how to analyse this would be appreciated !

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $31.15
CO: $25
BTN: $29.25
SB: $38.30
Hero (BB): $32.80
UTG: $25.70

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.85) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero bets $0.65, MP calls $0.65, CO calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.80) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $6, MP raises to $11, CO folds, Hero ???

Profish2285 · #2 10-29-2007, 12:11 AM

I shove here. He can think a jack is the nuts, or he could have the J of spades. Would he really just call flop with KJ spades?

Khaos4k · #3 10-29-2007, 12:23 AM

From an 81/16 you can expect to see a lower flush a lot of the time. Or a straight. Or a flush draw. Push.

whyzze · #4 10-29-2007, 12:53 AM

not shoving here is horrible. look at his AF...you have his range crushed.

EMc · #5 10-29-2007, 12:55 AM

AHHHH GOD DAMMIT IM GOING ALL IN

Bavid Denyamine · #6 10-29-2007, 07:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
AHHHH GOD DAMMIT IM GOING ALL IN

[/ QUOTE ]

DickieBets · #7 10-29-2007, 11:13 AM

I guess the problem I'm having here is that despite the unlikelihood of him having a better flush - I had a very strong feeling that he wouldn't stack off with a weak hand like that - I actually felt that he was a strong player post flop.

I'm trying to figure out where I should draw the line in trusting my reads vs. relying on odds. Maybe having that accurate of reading ability at 25NL is futile. On the other hand - folding the 3rd highest flush here seems incredibly weak.