Satellite bubble hand

[M.B.E.]

Final table of a PokerStars turbo rebuy sat with four getting $650 seats. Currently five players remaining and I have the second-shortest stack.

Blinds 1000/2000, ante 200. Stacks before posting are:

43,200 UTG
49,800 CO
13,500 Button (me)
27,900 SB
9,600 BB

Folded to me and I have pocket sixes. What is my best play?

[homanga]

Depends on how active SB has been on pressuring the short stack. In no way do you want to see the SB give him a walk, however with 66 your looking at a cointflip at best if you are called (likely by the SB). I'm folding unless you believe SB will let him walk.

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]
Depends on how active SB has been on pressuring the short stack. In no way do you want to see the SB give him a walk, however with 66 your looking at a cointflip at best if you are called (likely by the SB). I'm folding unless you believe SB will let him walk.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm I'm shoving this all day, maybe I'm wrong to do so?

[homanga]

Honestly I would likely shove it, but for some reason wanted to make a justification for folding. Really depends on the action at the table I guess.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Depends on how active SB has been on pressuring the short stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don’t think you can really draw inferences about how likely SB will be to pressure the short stack, because with five-minute levels, circumstances change so rapidly, especially approaching the bubble.

Let’s just say that the SB seemed to be a reasonably good player.

[homanga]

Basically I am almost certain that you pushed this and ran into a good hand. Pushing is probably the correct thing to do however, you can look at it from the prospective of if I push what does that do to my chances to win a seat as opposed to folding.

[M.B.E.]

I pushed. SB folded; BB called with A2o. My 66 held, so I won the seat.

Afterward, a friend thought that folding would have been the preferable play, preserving my stack while letting the other players take care of the short stack. My friend thought that you would want at least 99 to push in this spot.

My own view is that pushing the 66 was correct. Actually I think it would be correct to push a fairly wide range here, perhaps 22-AA, A8+, and KJ+. The reason is that the SB has no incentive to call my push except with a huge hand, and if I fold, the SB has little incentive to raise. Therefore if I fold, it is likely that the short stack will pick up some additional chips, which puts me in increased jeopardy.

I figure that if I fold, I have about a 60%-65% probability of winning a seat, while if I push with 66, my probability of ultimately winning a seat should be around 70%.

[Dunkman]

He's a walk here away from having more chips than you, and SB doesn't have enough chips to shove with impunity. Actually if he shoves here and loses he's put himself into trouble, where he has 2x the chips of both of you if he just folds, so I think he's actually giving BB a walk here a good deal of the time, which puts you as the short stack and you'll be in the blinds before villain. That's why I like shoving here.

[BrandiFan]

Yes, Dunkman is spot on again. Think of it as you raising for 2 reasons: to win the chips and to keep the BB from winning them. This makes the pot doubly valuable since BB is your main competition for the seat.

[JSmith2007]

Completely agree with above. With such high blinds of 1k/2k and assuming the SB plays safe and doesnt wake up with KK/AA, he will almost always fold here, especially if you push or limp. One more blind steal for the BB in this and he has you 'dominated' for stacks and you'd likely to bubble.

Shove all day.