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Old 10-19-2007, 07:23 AM
Roland GTX Roland GTX is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2
Default First BnM tourney: poor play or bad luck?

I played in my first casino tournament a few days ago in Dublin and am trying to analyse the hand that knocked me out of the game. Here is the situation:

Eight players left at the final table of an 80 player tourney with a 50 euro buy in and top eight in the money. Play has been tight for the last 30 minutes while waiting for the ninth place player to go out on the bubble. The blinds are at 500/1000 and will increase to 800/1500 in two minutes.

I am an amateur with home game and profitable small stakes NL multi-table SnG experience. My goal for the tournament was to make the final table. After I got there, my goal was to win it. I have played tight all evening, only shown down premium cards and gotten respect from the other players. People folded to the few moves I made. (Thanks Dan Harrington!)

BB has K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
The BB is a pro player and has the second largest stack with 22 000. I have been at his table all night and know that his plays fairly tight, but can definitely makes some moves in the right situations.

I have A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I have the third largest stack with 18 000. I am fifth to act and everyone has folded to me. I decide to try to steal the blinds. I raise to 4 000. Everyone folds but the BB calls me. I assume that he knows what I am trying to do and has good enough cards to call, but not good enough to re-raise me.

The pot is now 8500.
Flop comes: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

The BB bets 5 000, making the pot 13 500.
I reason as follows:
I am pretty sure that the flop missed him with all the low cards on the board, and feel fairly sure that he has two high cards.I interpret his raise as most likely being his attempt to win the pot, and that he is correctly assuming that I have two high cards and have also missed the flop.

If I fold, I will still have the third largest stack, but my M will drop down to 6. If I call and lose I will be in even worse shape. However, if I re-raise I estimated about a 2/3 chance that the BB would fold if I had read him correctly. If he called I would still have at least 15 outs with my nut flush, two overcard, miracle straight and even high card possibilities. Winning the hand would make me chip leader and give me an excellent possibility to win the tournament.

I go all-in with my remaining 14 000 making it a 9 000 re-raise to him. The pot is now 27 500. He is getting 3/1 odds, but I did not think he would jeopardize his position in the tournament on a marginal hand (unlike me).

After a long time thinking, he called me and his pair of threes held up to win the hand. I went out of the tournament in 8th place, but on the plus side nonetheless. Casino play was much more exhilarating than playing online.

Did I play poorly, or simply get unlucky? Any advice would be appreciated.
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