Odd bubble problem.

[Webster]

More of a theory problem here - not a hand problem.

I'm on the bubble

Blinds are 100/200

LAG Stealer 6000 chips
Hero 2200
Shorty 1000
Whale 5800

Reads
LAG has been stealing almost 100% of the time since t100.

Hero - knows about ICM considers himself a good player - when not making bonehead plays

Shorty - looses connection, tight, folds WHEN he is connected which is seldom.

Whale - tight, waiting for Hero or Shorty to go belly up.

Here is the problem.

LAG is ALWAYS stealing. Shorty is just being blinded out of the SNG and I'm sitting there with hands like KK and QQ knowing I'm better then LAG - HOWEVER - I also know that Shorty is not playing and one bad hand and I'm OTM.

Do I play it safe and wait for Shorty to go out and fold my superior KK? Do I go after LAG who MIGHT have a hand and risk losing to a lost connection? And do I count on that connection to stay lost? He comes and goes.

[auc hincloss]

Uh, no.

[plexiq]

If CO is loose, you have like 80% equity against his range - dont even consider folding KK.

[sence25]

But there could be better spots later ........ !
No seriously wtf? shove it!

[Slim Pickens]

Shorty would have to be much shorter than 5 BB and/or you would have to have more than 11 BB.

[Webster]

But three orbits and he is toast. Why risk a bad beat. I lose 200 each orbit - he loses 300 each orbit.

for the sake of argument. KK wins 81% of the time so 19% of the time I lose to somebody not even playing.

[sence25]

[ QUOTE ]
But three orbits and he is toast. Why risk a bad beat. I lose 200 each orbit - he loses 300 each orbit.

for the sake of argument. KK wins 81% of the time so 19% of the time I lose to somebody not even playing.

[/ QUOTE ]
And shortie will never double up?

[durron597]

this situation starts to get interesting in the JJ-99 range. Fold AK. Dont fold AA-QQ.

[Webster]

I feel i SHOULD have pushed with KK but as durron597 pointed out I did have a few hands like AQs and 88.

Shorty never did double up. We were all aware of his not being there and when he did show up he folded and lost connection the next hand.

THAT was the problem - I was pretty sure he would never play a hand, yet, if he doubled up I would be forced to change my foldyness!

[pdiggz]

Are you suggesting folding hands like KK to some LAGtard who is stealing with any two tickets, just because shortstack is disconnected? Wow....Trying to fold into the money is kind of sad to me. I love when these guys are at my table and I pick up a hand. That's the perfect time to get this guy and double up.