99 late in $5 tourney

HP_Drifter · #1 10-15-2007, 04:41 PM

So, I should have just shoved on the flop, right? I'm positive he's either drawing at the flush/straight or has a weak pair. Given the turn, was shoving still the right play, even though I messed up my FE?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t72480)
BB (t82923)
UTG (t25934)
UTG+1 (t17467)
MP1 (t16848)
Hero (t24623)
MP3 (t23698)
CO (t96464)
Button (t46138)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to t3255, 3 folds, SB calls t2655, BB calls t2055.

Flop: (t8965) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets t1200, Hero raises to t6555, SB folds, BB calls t5355.

Turn: (t22075) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t14688 (All-In), BB calls t14688.

River: (t51451) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t51451

levAA · #2 10-15-2007, 04:52 PM

basically to raise BB here is not bad, the problem is with any reasonable bet size you commit yourself - so you are right - this is a shove or fold decision on the flop imo - calling is bad, as this is weak, you have only two outs, and will face a big bet on the turn, which you cannot call.

with two overcards and 2 villains this looks like a fold.

ssnyc · #3 10-15-2007, 06:16 PM

why would you shove that flop? Why would you raise that flop? Why would you push the turn? FWIW if he was drawing to the str8 and hit it you just pushed into himif he had Q10 he just took the lead...Love to hear why you couldn't let this one go

Loxodonta · #4 10-15-2007, 06:34 PM

I'm guessing blinds are 600-1,200? Pushing pre flop screams to me: "I have a medium pair and don't want to play a flop.", Of course this flop is why you don't want to play one. I might have put in a full pot sized bet preflop to just over 4K. With the donks at $5, I'm with ssnyc on finding a better spot for your chips. In my experience, low stakes people who lead out for the minimum like this could have anything from a straight draw to top pair with a weak kicker to two pair. Regardless, even AJ or K8 is going to call you all the way down, so be patient and wait for something you can bet for value and get paid on. This ain't it.

HP_Drifter · #5 10-15-2007, 07:27 PM

I'd shove the flop because, as I said, I'm positive he has a draw or at very best a weak pair that I think I can shove him off. Yea, it's a $5, but I don't think he's calling off a third of his stack on just a draw. The players are bad, but they're not that bad. The turn shove was horrible, I know, I knew the second I did it it was stupid. In retrospect, I think giving up on the flop is way too weak, and any other bet commits us, so the only real thing I can see doing here is shoving. Are you suggesting just giving up on the flop?

Loxodonta · #6 10-15-2007, 08:05 PM

Shoving the flop probably has your best folding equity, but you're playing your 99 as a bluff since you aren't even ahead of QT or A8s. I still think you're going to get called a lot and I don't like to bluff the $5 folks except at the bubble. You have 20 big blinds left, wait for a better spot. No shame in letting this one go.

tomek322 · #7 10-15-2007, 08:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
why would you shove that flop? Why would you raise that flop? Why would you push the turn? FWIW if he was drawing to the str8 and hit it you just pushed into himif he had Q10 he just took the lead...Love to hear why you couldn't let this one go

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel like shoving this flop is a world class play I could never make. Umm actually it seems borderline retarded. If he is drawing it's a combo draw that will probably call with the dead money. And I think you forgot that the SB can easily have something he was planning on C/Ring with. I guess I'm just weak tight and fold here to the 1200.

tomek322 · #8 10-15-2007, 08:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In retrospect, I think giving up on the flop is way too weak

[/ QUOTE ]

umm no it's not... actually pretty logical and normal.

ssnyc · #9 10-15-2007, 08:58 PM

giving up 99 on that flop is far from weak...you said you were positive what he had? How is that possible???? Why can't he have K 10, K J, K Q etc etc? Even AJ is staying...you can give up a pot on the flop...it won't hurt you

HP_Drifter · #10 10-15-2007, 11:23 PM

Okay, after some time to think I see how bad this is. I'm pretty new to tournaments and I get over aggressive sometimes. Out of curiosity, does anyone shove if SB is not in the hand? I guess I just don't see a king doing this.