bos @ cleveland

[agencia1]

anyone on this one?
im in for 385 to win 500 on boston
if beckett sticks to the plan of not trying to overpower
cleveland ill be happy.

[centris]

Here is a numbers play that assumes Pinny is accurate. Pinnacle has CLE total runs:
u3.5 +103
o3.5 -119

This converts to a fair probability over going under 3.5 as.4755, assuming Poisson distribution of runs scored this translates to a mean of about 3.79. Then you can calculate an expected line of u4 -144. You can get it at 5dimes for u4 -115.

If you think that 5dimes has a better estimate you can go with o3.5 at pinny.

Also this assumes Poisson distribution of runs scored. Which I am pretty sure is not the case. I think it is very close but since each run scored is not an independent event you will get more 0s, more really large numbers and less intermediate numbers (2,3,4,5,6) then expected from the Poisson. But I think that Poisson is close enough and the thing to worry about is if you really think pinny is that much sharper than 5dimes.

[centris]

Yeah here is the article where they talk about the Poisson distribution producing too few zeros and too few large numbers. They talk about some things you can do to make it better.

I am not going to but I bet someone could make these modifications to my above analysis.

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
im in for 385 to win 500 on boston

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean 500 to win 385? Or did this line open up with BOS as the dog?

craig

[agencia1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
im in for 385 to win 500 on boston

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean 500 to win 385? Or did this line open up with BOS as the dog?

craig

[/ QUOTE ]
oh sorry op missing info.
im taking boston -1.5