AQo spew or brilliance?

Burnsabre · #1 10-10-2007, 10:09 AM

Villain is a 50/30/2 LAG I play with alot. He's not bad but he'll bluff alot at obvious spots and sometimes not so obvious spots. I know he plays any A like this on low garbage flops. I'd say his range is any pair, trips, Ax, any fd, and then a decent percentage of random bluffs with overs.

so spew or no spew?

Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
4 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero raises, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6SB, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

mvoss · #2 10-10-2007, 10:13 AM

Spew imo, I'd just call turn and call river.

Flintoff · #3 10-10-2007, 10:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Spew imo, I'd just call turn and call river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gurravasa · #4 10-10-2007, 10:58 AM

spew... If he often is bluffing there is probably more value in calling down and letting him bluff again on river. And sometimes he'll have a hand and then you totally spewed this pot.

mattnxtc · #5 10-10-2007, 11:46 AM

He would have to be bluffing a lot to make this seem correct and I dont think he probably does.

Oink · #6 10-10-2007, 11:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He would have to be bluffing a lot to make this seem correct and I dont think he probably does.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if we knew for sure he was bluffing we should raise?

The fact that he has a draw or air is not an argument in itself for raising!!!

Mitke · #7 10-10-2007, 11:58 AM

By raising turn we give the villain a chance to fold the hand and might get a free showdown.

However, he's probably not going to fold 66, 77, any 9x, a FD, or JT (not likely). He might fold 8x but not 86 or 87 and other 8x are very rare here considering the flop. He probably is not folding A9/8 or Q7/8 either sometimes giving us reverse implied odds.

He might fold AK to a raise but not necessarily. He could fold worse aces but we don't want that to happen with his 3 outs.

He could fold random overcards with 3-6 outs. Getting a hand with 6 outs to fold could be a victory but not if he's willing to bluff the river with those.

If we raise the pot gets bloated giving him more reason to call down light.

-> would seem to indicate a turn call or fold.

Calling down gives us only 7:2. Is it enough to call in hope the villain bluffs and/or occasionally gives us a free showdown and/or we improve? Dunno.

thepizzlefosho · #8 10-10-2007, 12:29 PM

the problem is that you have 6 outs to improve, and this type of players might semi-bluff 3-bet a draw on the turn (which would be a disaster here). This isn't a great spot for a FSDr because you can't safely fold to a 3-bet, and you almost have enough outs to peel, along with having a hand that catches bluffs at SD.

Assuming that this player is going to fire the rive UI the vast majority of the time (and I think that is a safe assumption) we make the same two bets whether we call the turn and river, or go for a FSDr on the turn. The advantage to the call down is that we avoid folding the best hand on to a semi-bluff, or getting 3-bet on the turn in a spot where we likely have to call and try to spike on the river.

I think the more important question is do you just call or raise if an offsuit A or Q spikes on the river?

mattnxtc · #9 10-10-2007, 12:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He would have to be bluffing a lot to make this seem correct and I dont think he probably does.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if we knew for sure he was bluffing we should raise?

The fact that he has a draw or air is not an argument in itself for raising!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

My point really was that it would be an extreme case where I think this raise could be ok

This isnt a situation imo.

Against a guy who is bad and showdown bound I would think raising is pretty good.

Oink · #10 10-10-2007, 12:58 PM

So now you are saying hero should raise for value?

No no no.

I am sorry and I am sorry OP. But raising is just outright retarded and there is no way around it.

He is not folding a better hand and if he has a worse hand he will almost always fire river which means that when he folds you gained nothing. Just call down and let him barrel off