99 HU in 3bet pot vs. 25/9/3

[GiantBuddha]

Villain is 25/9/3 over 100 hands, with only 1/10 ATT to steal. Doesn't seem very positionally aware, but hasn't shown down anything spectacularly bad.

So my first question is whether to treat this as a WA/WB on the flop and just plan to call down as long as no Ace falls, or to play the flop more aggressively, since if I'm ahead at all, villain almost certainly has six outs.

The second question is once I've taken the c/c line on the flop, is it better to c/r or donk the turn once I spike a set?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...

[One Outer]

I think donking the flop makes the hand easier to play. If you get raised there you don't have to see a showdown, I guess. So I would have bet/called the flop and c/f an unhelpful turn.

As played (and, actually, if you had b/c as well) I'd checkraise. If you bet he might go into calldown mode, scared of a straight or god knows what else, assuming he actually has a hand. If he has overs (see how awesome donking the flop would have been? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) he's likely to just fold, correctly reading that he is now drawing dead or real slim. However, I don't think if he has the overpair he will ever check this turn behind. You're 99.9% guaranteed to get your two bets in if you c/r, IMO.

[StrictlyStrategy]

b3b HIS FACE

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
b3b HIS FACE

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something? Do the stats (which I admit I don't understand, as I am a lowly pathetic live player) indicate that he'll bump the overpair again on the turn? If that's the case, then yeah, bet/3town. I like my line because you're almost guaranteed to get 2 bets in while if you donk him again you're not as likely to get to threebet as you would be to get the checkraise in. I'd rather take the very likely two than the maybe 50/50 3bet (and I think I'm being pretty generous with how often he'll bump us again).

Oh, also, if you threetown him on the turn he might fold because on that board he's a lot more likely to read us for a straight than a set. Then we only get two bets. But if you c/r and lead the river, we get three.

[GiantBuddha]

The stats indicate loose aggressive, but more loose than aggressive. I used to bet this flop approximately always, but I've started playing mid-pocket pairs a little more passively in 3-bet HU pots lately. I'm not sure whether this is a good thing or not.

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
I've started playing mid-pocket pairs a little more passively in 3-bet HU pots lately

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Is it possible that you go to showdown too often with them?

I don't think you have to showdown this hand, necessarily, against anyone but a LAG. Given that, maybe b/3b is more likely to work, but I still like my line because getting 3 bets by showdown is a mortal lock. Plus if he's drawing and he's going to fold the river if he misses anyway we still get two bets.

I still can't see why my line isn't best.

[GiantBuddha]

I think I'm actually misapplying the WA/WB concept in these cases. That's mostly why I posted the hand, in fact. I think I've developed a leak which did not previously exist, and hopefully I've just plugged it (thanks).

I also think check/rasing the turn is the best play, because it gets 3 bets from overpairs, and at least gets one bet from ace-high hands whether they bet the turn or just call the river. B3B is clearly the best line against a spew-monkey, but I don't think we get to 3bet here often enough to make it superior to a check-raise.