Tilt 20r: AK river spot

fsoyars · #1 10-10-2007, 05:31 PM

No strong reads on villain. He maybe be on the loose side - I have him running at 28/17 but only over 46 hands. Edit: Comments welcome on all streets.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400
(Ante: t50)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t9025
UTG+1: t11124
Hero: t14507
MP2: t24290
CO: t45178
Button: t26245
SB: t3610
BB: t14985

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, Hero raises to t1000, 2 folds, Button calls t1000 (pot was t2000), SB folds, BB calls t600 (pot was t3000).

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t3600, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t2000, Button calls t2000 (pot was t5600), BB folds.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t7600, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t7600, 2 players)
Hero bets t5000, Button raises to t12000, Hero?

erc007 · #2 10-10-2007, 06:10 PM

I think your line is fine but the bet sizing is a little off IMO. I'd make it 1100 pre, as played bet 2400 on the flop.

I think this is a good spot for a blocking bet on the river, but betting 5K is too much. You want value from worse hands and u want to make it tough for villain to bluff u off the best hand. Betting 5K prob will make it more difficult to get calls from worse hands and it commits u to calling if u are raised (knowing that u are behind almost always.) I think 3000-3600 is the right size for the river block. This gets u value and lets u get away when u are raised.

Coz · #3 10-10-2007, 06:53 PM

I am calling this, there is little doubt in my mind that we are ahead. IMO you got him to do exactly what you wanted him to do, induce a shove on the river with something like KQ, KJ, A7, AQ, or even something like 88-TT. This isn't a set often enough to fold I happily call. You have to think about what you represented, you represented something like AQ, c-bet failed, so you checked turn, you sensed weakness in opponents turn check and tried to steal on river. Villian thinks you are bluffing and that he can steal it.

I think you played this hand very well. I probably would have raised to 1200 pre but that really doesn't make to big a difference.

fsoyars · #4 10-10-2007, 07:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am calling this, there is little doubt in my mind that we are ahead. IMO you got him to do exactly what you wanted him to do, induce a shove on the river with something like KQ, KJ, A7, AQ, or even something like 88-TT. This isn't a set often enough to fold I happily call. You have to think about what you represented, you represented something like AQ, c-bet failed, so you checked turn, you sensed weakness in opponents turn check and tried to steal on river. Villian thinks you are bluffing and that he can steal it.

I think you played this hand very well. I probably would have raised to 1200 pre but that really doesn't make to big a difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really have to disagree with your hand reading. If villain had KQ, A7 or 88-TT and had me on whiffed high cards like AQ, why would he raise instead of calling? There's no value in raising. And I think it's very rare that unknowns take a line like this with KJ or AQ. It's quite unlikely we're ahead here, the only real question is: are we getting the right price to call, given that we are usually behind?

SengioKang · #5 10-10-2007, 07:11 PM

ugh... everyone loves this small bump and a half raise... and i don't know why, because it prices alot of people in. you're in early position and you should make a larger than normal raise because of your bad position and premium holding. personally i would have come in for about 1400... 3bet+antes (if not more... as a strong hand behind will reraise you and a cold call just looks fishy) also for the simple fact that there are 4 stacks behind you that can break you and now would be the time where you really want to narrow one of them down to a hand not just a cheap priced in call w/ premium position.

given the texture of the flop your hand was golden... and a perfect spot to check/trap. i would have checked there w/ no flush draws present because it's hardly likely that someone is holding 68, 89 or 84 and you're way in front at that point to anyone who flopped a king behind you (86/14...80/20 w/ backdoor flush draws) and a bigger bet than 2k that doesn't look like a cbet into a raggy board would be called for... i'd shoot more towards 3/4s to a pot sized bet showing strength. as you could really slow down after that if you encountered resistance and still have an M>10.

in general, i'd lean towards checking the flop and possibly the turn for pot control/pickin off a bluff and a block bet on river.

i like the bet-check-bet sequence w/ monsters like sets and overpairs where it looks like a horrible steal attempt on the river.

the way this hand played out i think the button has a medium pair JJ-88 (qq or higher would have RR'd PF) or 2 suited high cards like KQ or KJ and is putting you on a post oak bluff and trying to push you off... either that or he flopped a medium set and is now betting into a ridiculous board w/ a 4-straight instead of cold calling... which i've seen alot of people do. AK or 66 is not out of the question either. really bad luck to run into 66 there tho for the 49:1 outdraw...(but it was a 10% favorite to hit that or a set)

you surrendered your control of the pot on the turn by not betting and declaring strength w/ a 3rd shell ... and opened yourself up to something you didn't want to see a raise for all your $. unfortunately u have 8 of 14k in the pot and if you fold you have an M of 6... so the decision should put u on calling and not folding for almost 2.5:1 odds.

did his river bet put you all in??? if not i would have instacalled and said "oh well" if 6's or 5's got there as a bigger bet would have pushed those out earlier in the hand. you can't let yourself have 6k and be on the edge of the red zone, especially when blinds are coming up in the hand you have to call the river.

hamnegger · #6 10-10-2007, 07:15 PM

i call.the pot size justifies the call you are losing alot tied some, ahead some. id say 20%tie 20% ahead 60%behind

2p2J · #7 10-10-2007, 07:27 PM

Everything looks pretty standard. His range looks like 33-77 TPGK + more. By the river it looks like your behind too many hands here. Also why check the turn? I don't think its wrong just curious to hear someones explanation. On the river your getting 2.5-1. Looks like you gotta pay him off.

fsoyars · #8 10-10-2007, 07:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Everything looks pretty standard. His range looks like 33-77 TPGK + more. By the river it looks like your behind too many hands here. Also why check the turn? I don't think its wrong just curious to hear someones explanation. On the river your getting 2.5-1. Looks like you gotta pay him off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm checking the turn bc this board is extremely dry and I'm either WA/WB. If I'm WA of one pair I get extra value on a river bet by checking the turn since a lot of mid pairs will call a river bet if I check the turn but will fold to two barrels. If I am WB a set, the turn check gives me pot control. I think my biggest mistake in this hand, as the first replier mentioned, was bet sizing bc if I am in fact WB on the river I'm priced in to call. No one ever shoves this river with a medium strength hand - it's either a monster or air. And when it's an unknown and we have no history, it's very rarely air.

fsoyars · #9 10-10-2007, 08:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i call.the pot size justifies the call you are losing alot tied some, ahead some. id say 20%tie 20% ahead 60%behind

[/ QUOTE ]

you think villain has AK 20% of the time?

BarryLyndon · #10 10-10-2007, 08:07 PM

Yes, you get value on the river by doing this and it's nice, but that's a terrible river to bet on, IMO. I'd rather check/call because maybe he will value bet KQ or try to bluff a K or check behind if he thought about c-bluffing.

Barry