#1
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QQ vs straight draw early in tourney vs big stack-- fold or jam?
Here's the situation:
$500 single rebuy tourney at the Bike last night blinds at 100/200; rebuy period just ended I've got T4500, which is above average at table Everyone folds to me; I'm two off the button. I raise to 550 with QQ. Cutoff (4000 in chips) calls. Button calls. Small blind calls. Flop comes down 346 rainbow. SB bets 2100. He's got the monster stack at the table from doubling up two hands ago (JJ holds up against AK) -- about 11k. My impression is that he's loose and a little weak. I put him on top pair at best, figuring he'd be slow-playing if he had a set or a straight. After thinking about it, I push, believing the remaining players were calling hoping to hit and couldn't have a monster. The two other guys fold. SB counts down my chips, calls, and turns over 76o for top pair plus gutshot. Next card comes down a 5, and I'm out. Turns out I was good 2:1 against him. However, I came very close to backing down, thinking that against the big stack, this is a bad situation, especially if I've only got 550 in there. Why risk my survival when I know I can best him later on? And the primary imperative is to survive the early rounds. Counterargument: with the range I put him on [33-66, 75, 45, overcard plus draw), I'm at best 50-54%, so for only 550 chips, this may have been an excellent time to fold and live another day. Counter-counterargument: You only get big pocket pairs and opportunities to double up so often. Blinds are already at 200/100, they're about to go up to 300/150 when every raise commits you to the pot, your M is less than 15 and the crapshoot begins. Take the 2:1 and run with it, and hope the poker gods smile on you. What would you do in such a situation? |
#2
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Re: QQ vs straight draw early in tourney vs big stack-- fold or jam?
id kill myself and would have never made this post.
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#3
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Re: QQ vs straight draw early in tourney vs big stack-- fold or jam?
"I got my money in as an overwhelming favorite. I was massively +EV and probably earned like 3-4k in cEV by shoving over SB. However, I was scared to lose and I am posting because maybe I should have folded? I mean, what if he sucks out on me? Should I jist wait until I get AA and bust the loose SB monster stack? Why should I take this massively +EV spot when I can just pass on it and wait for AA and bust him! Why should I put my tournament life on the line this early?"
"I mean, I never would have posted this if he didn't get there, but I am having regrets because I lost and I feel like I should have just waited for AA because if I put my life on the line he could always suck out and bust me like he did!" |
#4
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Re: QQ vs straight draw early in tourney vs big stack-- fold or jam?
[ QUOTE ]
Blinds are already at 200/100, they're about to go up to 300/150 when every raise commits you to the pot, your M is less than 15 and the crapshoot begins. [/ QUOTE ] The crapshoot has already begun. |
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