Ace high flush facing a shove, deep

[AZplaya]

Villian is 15/7 over about a thousand hands, mult-tabling nit.

Blinds $.15/.30

Hero - $110
Villian - covers

Hero is BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $.30, CO folds, Button calls $.30, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Pot: $1.05

Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Pot - $1.05

<font color="red">Hero bets $1 </font> , UTG folds, Button calls

River: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Pot: $2.85

<font color="red">Hero bets $2 , Button raises to $5, Hero raises to $12, Button raises all in to $128.50 </font>, Hero pukes and ???

I raised small on the river hoping he would call with the Jack or 10, but wtf?
Can't believe I'm considering folding, but can I really expect to be good here?

[faarcyde]

Uh, you lose to exactly one hand. Are you serious?

[Pokerdemic]

I think if he hit an oesfd on the turn he would have raised. But I can't imagine what he has that he wants to get his stack in on this board.

[simple1248]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, you lose to exactly one hand. Are you serious?

[/ QUOTE ]

[SkeetyMcdoogle]

Threads like this and and that one about folding 2nd set on a drawless board are about to make my head explode.

[BevillTheDevil]

so villian seems pretty nitty. From a typical nit the river raise screams I HAVE TEH NUTZ (or close to it). But can we really put this guy on 1 hand?? 1st. what does villians pf limp mean?? From my experience this type of player is limpin SCs, small-mid PP, AJ/AQ sometimes, every once in a while suited 1 gappers and offsuit connectors but IMO def at the very very bottom of this guys range. Soo what could villian have post. Sets, KQ really only 2 pair that makes since. Does this villian semibluff the river this weak w/ those hands hopin you fold like J high flush or somethin?? I dont think so. Could he raise w/ a J high flush, possibly but if he is any good nad plays a lot w/ AZ then that again is a semibluff/ no value play. T high flush and lower IMO are not raisin the river and def are not goin to call a 3bet. So IMO it comes down to him callin a 3bet on river w/ a J high flush...but what Jxs hands are in this guys range?? AJ,KJ,QJ,J9 NOPE...that leaves JTs. Really what other Jx hand is a 15/7 limpin OTB??

I think villian will OCCASIONALLY semibluff the river w/ some hands like i mentioned above but is he callin a 3bet w/ anything we beat?? I cant think of a single hand...I call after he makes the 1st raise.

EDIT: also knowin how aggro the villian is would help some

[faarcyde]

another thing to consider here is the villain might have made a flush on the turn, and it is possible there is a little siren above his head going "ALL IN CHOO CHOO" no matter what the river card is. So one percent of the time he has JTs, twenty percent of the time he is an idiot with a jack, and the other 79 percent of the time he is bluffing.

[highsteptd]

feeling of losing to straight flush &gt; feeling of folding A-high flush and always wondering.

There's no way you fold here, how can you live with yourself wondering what he could have had? $128 you can make back eventually

[BevillTheDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
So one percent of the time he has JTs, twenty percent of the time he is an idiot with a jack, and the other 79 percent of the time he is bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

where do you come up w/ these %s?? Id like u to tell me the 21% Jx hands he has here???

u really think a NIT is bluffin all that often??

From my experience w/ AZ he isnt a LAGtard that is raisin the river here w/ air and he isnt a nit that only calls w/ teh nutz.

[faarcyde]

I was pulling those numbers straight from my bum, my point is just call.