Bet the river?

[Lethe]

MP is a megalag. Plays 95% of his hands, and raises 50% or more. BB is tight, and while certainly not passive, isn't overly aggro. My image is pretty rocky at this point as I've raised PF and folded to 1 bet on the flop twice, and b/f the flop a few times after raising preflop. I've also been fairly card dead.

The game is playing 6 handed as a few people are off on dinner markers.

Folded to MP who open limps, I raise 98s in the CO, folded to BB who 3bets, we call.

Flop: K 8 5 (2 diamonds and I don't have one)
BB Checks, MP checks, I bet, BB calls, MP folds.

Turn: 7
BB checks, I bet, BB calls.

River: J
BB checks, hero ??

Easy b/f?

[StrictlyStrategy]

[x] megalag open limps in MP

PF
Fold > Call > Raise

I'd check this river and not even think twice about it. You don't think BB has QQ-99 here a lot?

[Lethe]

I think preflop is closer than you think it is. MP is playing ATC, and I figured there was a fairly good chance of getting it heads up against him. Would you raise T9s?

As for the river... I figured MP could have AQ/AJ with diamonds, or QQ-99. I'm fairly sure he folds TT/99 to my river bet, obv. raises JJ, and calls QQ. Do you think that makes the decision closer or still a clear check?

[One Outer]

For starters, I'd fold preflop. I'm not sure why you're trying to isolate someone that that hardly ever folds with 9 high.

As played, I would check the river. Given your read I think BB has you beat here a majority of the time. You're going to be shown QQ-99 an awful lot there. Can you think of anything that he would three bet pf and then call you down with that you beat? The only thing this could ever be, that you beat, is like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

[Ricks]

When you try to isolate a LAG, I think it's best to have a hand that has a chance of winning unimproved.

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you raise T9s?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Isolating anyone, lag or not, with a hand that only plays well multiway and has microscopic showdown value unimproved is -EV.



[ QUOTE ]
I figured MP could have AQ/AJ with diamonds

I'm fairly sure he folds TT/99 to my river bet


[/ QUOTE ]

I included the AQd in my first post because that's the only thing he could have here that you have beat, but that doesn't mean that I think it's likely.

He almost never has that. I want to say never, but you should never say never about poker. A guy that is aggro enough and good enough to three bet AQd in that spot preflop isn't going to just go into check/call mode when he flops the nut flush draw. He's going to take the lead.

His line indicates a weak/tight player that got married to a PP and can't fold it but wants to show down as cheaply as possible. The range is 99-QQ, but I think that anybody that plays this passively postflop on that board after three betting PF is going to show you QQ a clear majority of the time.

Oh, and even if he does have 99 or TT he's still not folding to a river bet. If he was folding to a river bet with one of those hands he wouldn't have called the turn.

[Lethe]

Thanks for the insight guys. This is a play that I make preflop basically never, but at the time it felt like the right thing to do. Probably because calling felt gross, and folding felt worse after hours of being card dead. I initially thought the raise was pretty close (maybe neutral EV), but you are right about having next to no showdown value UI.

The river was basically my primary reason for posting this hand. I've had a horrible last few weeks at the tables and it's easy to get results oriented when you're running bad.

I bet this river, and villain folded and flashed me a J. After the hand though, the whole thing from start to finish just felt kind of dirty. I think you're right that he has QQ-99 here basically always and I'm winning almost never.

[One Outer]

Wow. You got pretty lucky. Now I'm wracking my brain trying to think of a hand that contains a single J that he plays that way. And he didn't call the one last bet? Wow.

Lol. That was your get out of jail free card. Now stop doing this [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]