Variance

[Dankenstein]

Is variance different at different levels of limit ? I feel that the lower the limit the more variance there is at least in the micros. I say this because it seems like there are so many more players in the pots than at the higher limits. It seems so much harder here to get a hand to hold out by the river. Is my thinking just completely flawed or does anyone else feel the same way ?

[Landonfan]

The highest limits have the most variance. The lower your edge over your opponents, the higher the variance.

[kerowo]

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The highest limits have the most variance. The lower your edge over your opponents, the higher the variance.

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Do you have some math or something to back that up? Cause it sounds counter intuitive to me. The worse you're opponents the bigger the pots are going to be and the more expensive it is going to be to miss your draws or get drawn out on.

[Landonfan]

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The highest limits have the most variance. The lower your edge over your opponents, the higher the variance.

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Do you have some math or something to back that up? Cause it sounds counter intuitive to me. The worse you're opponents the bigger the pots are going to be and the more expensive it is going to be to miss your draws or get drawn out on.

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No, I'm just going on common knowledge. I may have misinterpretted it, though, since it does sound counterintuitive.

I know it's true for SNGs. If you look at the Sharkscope graphs for the best low/mid players, it's usually just a straight line sloping up. But the graphs of even the best high stakes players'll make you dizzy. And I can tell you that there are a lot more suckouts at the low stakes.

[bellatrix]

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The highest limits have the most variance. The lower your edge over your opponents, the higher the variance.

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Do you have some math or something to back that up? Cause it sounds counter intuitive to me. The worse you're opponents the bigger the pots are going to be and the more expensive it is going to be to miss your draws or get drawn out on.

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It depends how you define variance. Do you define it in BigBets/100? Then, yes it tends to go down at higher limits.
But if you define variance in terms of your winrate. 20xwinrate e.g, where winrate 1BB/100, for example, then your winrate at higher limits goes down much faster than the variance in terms of BB/100. This is why you need such a large bankroll at the highest limits -> it's not the variance itself that is large, your winrate is just small. The best players in the world play 100/200 and higher with winrates of just 0.7BB/100.

[Landonfan]

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The highest limits have the most variance. The lower your edge over your opponents, the higher the variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you have some math or something to back that up? Cause it sounds counter intuitive to me. The worse you're opponents the bigger the pots are going to be and the more expensive it is going to be to miss your draws or get drawn out on.

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends how you define variance. Do you define it in BigBets/100? Then, yes it tends to go down at higher limits.
But if you define variance in terms of your winrate. 20xwinrate e.g, where winrate 1BB/100, for example, then your winrate at higher limits goes down much faster than the variance in terms of BB/100. This is why you need such a large bankroll at the highest limits -> it's not the variance itself that is large, your winrate is just small. The best players in the world play 100/200 and higher with winrates of just 0.7BB/100.

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I think I get what you're saying, and I think it's the same thing I'm saying [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Basically, you're going to get drawn out on a lot more, but the higher winrate will soften that a lot. Is this what you're getting at?

[Aaron W.]

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It depends how you define variance. Do you define it in BigBets/100? Then, yes it tends to go down at higher limits.

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Hmmmm... I thought it actually goes up at the higher limits because the players are more aggressive so that you're forced to put more bets in on average than at the lower levels.

[Smurph64]

Variance is the amount of bb/100 or bb/hr that you can go up and down at any given time based on your play.

Each person's variance is different not according to the level they are playing at but as to how they play.

If someone plays the same way at each level then logically your variance will be highest at the lowest levels since more people are in the pots.

The reason your variance usually goes up at higher limits is due to having to be more aggressive in order to win. Even though you are betting more so too are your opponents and so the increased aggression by all generally means your variance will go up.

[Gib]

whoa, i think this is starting to go off the rails here.

Generally the 'higher' the limit the more aggressive the games get, hence increasing the variance. The lower limits are typically passive calling station type games. Also one thing to note is most online games above 10/20 are generally short handed which will in turn increase the variance.

At lower limits there is generally alot more ppl calling in the pot hence why ppl tend to think there are a lot of suckouts (bad beats, etc), but this ways out all the times that there is a tonne of dead money in the pot.

Another element to add is the fish @ higher stakes tend to get better postflop, which can lead to some hand reading nightmares.

[bellatrix]

Exactly. Let's say at the nanos your variance is 20BB/100 (quite large) and your winrate is 3BB/100. You can well call yourself a winner after just 4500 hands and you would only need about 2000BB bankroll for such stakes (about 2sigma ROR).

At highest stakes, say 50/100, your variance is perhaps 12BB/100 (I am not 100% sure about this, but it sounds right). Pots will be much smaller, not so many suckouts. Yet confrontations are heads-up, which increases variance again. Let's say your winrate is 0.5BB/100. While the variance in terms of winrate has quadrupled and you would need AT LEAST 800BB bankroll, if not more.