NL50: Overcard to TPTK falls on turn against very tight raiser.

[Sean Fraley]

I have about 20 hands w/ villain by this point, all from this table. I've had a run of good cards so have been rather aggressive lately, but every hand that has seen a showdown has been a winner including one just a few ago that just about doubled me up. Villain has been pretty unobtrusive but rather loose running about 55/6 with aggression stats of 0.6/1/1.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $48.75
BB: $9.25
UTG: $29.25
MP: $29
CO: $30.45
Hero (BTN): $87.65

Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">MP raises to $2</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.75) (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">MP bets $2.50</font>, Hero calls $2.50, UTG folds

Turn: ($11.75) (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $10.50</font>, Hero ???


The flop call is due to the fact that while I've got TPTK, against such a tight raiser I really just want to get to showdown and against so passive an opponent it stands a good chance of just getting called by hands that beat me instead of folding them.

As far as the turn the difference in bet size is what worries me. The flop bet is less than half of the pot, but the turn bet is close to pot. There are few situations that I see this happening, almost all of which are likely to beat me. Basically I really think that he either he had me beat on the flop and decided to bet more confidently once he saw that I wasn't necessarily afraid of him betting on this flop or that the king improved him two TPTK or better. Is folding this turn too weak or is the fact that he is so passive make this betting pattern a good sign that I should give it up?

[kerk]

i think you have to raise this flop to about 7 or 8 and fold to a 4 bet. it looks like he has a 10 or just a standard c-bet with AK or something similar.


Edit: i would also fold the turn as played.

[Sean Fraley]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you have to raise this flop to about 7 or 8 and fold to a 4 bet. it looks like he has a 10 or just a standard c-bet with AK or something similar.


Edit: i would also fold the turn as played.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does raising this flop against a villain with a PFR of 6% and a flop AF of less than 1 get me value? I would get value from KQ. I might get it from AK only if villain is the type to hold on to it hoping to peel. On the other hand a Villain this passive isn't necessarily going to raise me here if I am beat. In that case I am simply donating to AA, KK, QQ, TT, and QTs. If villain has AQ I'm just paying more rake. Also, this guy sees a lot of flops but hasn't seen hardly any showdowns (sorry, should have put that in earlier). He will probably fold second pair and whiffed cards.

[Ramana]

You don't know yet if he's a "tight raiser", after 20 hands, stats don't mean much. However, since he is unknown, just calling pf and flop is not that bad. Turn is an obvious fold. Readless it's impossible to continue with that hand profitably. In fact you'd have to be able to call not only the 10$ on the turn, but the entire 25$ he has in his stack.

[Chomp]

I think the K is about the last turn card you want to see here as it hits a lot of villain's range: AK, AJ, KQ, KT. That leaves very little from his preflop/flop ranges that we are beating IMO. I mean, his preflop range alone probably isn't much wider than {88+,AT+,KQ,KJ,KT,QT,QJ} or whatever, and we are only beating {88,99,AT,QJ,TJ} and I don't think any of this range pots turn like this - so his range by the time he bets turn is yet further narrowed to hands that are beating us IMO.

It's always tempting here - I guess cause it's often true against some idiots - to think this villain has suddenly woken up to the fact there's a FD you could be chasing and is betting his Qx, but here, meh, I think I gracefully retreat.

As for flop, a raise does get a call from a lot of hands we beat - KQ,JQ,TJ,AJ,AT,XdXd - and since we have the Ad, we need not be so concerned about getting shoved on by a draw. So a b/3b from villain is probably always TT-AA, in which case we could fold pretty easily I think. Also I think we are in a bad RIO situation on flop so could do with getting money in now while ahead of a lot of villain's range.

That said, I will call here sometimes on the basis that if we are ahead villain is drawing to only a few outs and we may get more value on turn and river than by raising flop, and also on the basis that if we are behind, this passive villain will let us know by his turn action, which will hardly ever be a strong bet with worse than TPTK. This is a cheap way to find out we are behind.

So I think I put flop decision down to table conditions.

And villain has KQ here IMO.

Just opinion, as I suck (and am a little bit drunk).


Edit: Blah, didn't see stats were over 20 hands. lol, my opinion sucks in that case. If you had 200 hands, it might suck less. Raise flop.

[kerk]

He will probably fold second pair and whiffed cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly why i would raise the flop. there are no real draws that he should be holding that will continue after the flop and if you think your AQ is no good on the flop then why are you asking if its possible to call the turn when it is a relative blank for the range you just put him on.
if the turn comes a 3 and he bets 10.00 are you still putting him on that precise range you stated and folding anyway?

fwiw i think he has AK, TT or KQ as well.