gross hand NL200 cash 200BB deep

[jakeduke]

Sorry for the miles of background here - hopefully most of it's relevant. I may xpost this in SSNL or something.

villain is, well, terrible. In 95% of situations he's the most predictable player ever. Bets when he has a pair, checks when he doesn't (it varies with monsters but he usually bets). He's generally allergic to folding. He has a gigantic flaw in that he doesn't fold to a 3bet pf EVER, regardless of his holdings. He's shown down 72s, 74o, and j5s in 3bet pots. He also folds on the flop wayyyyyyyyy too much in these 3bet pots, so I've been 3betting him a ton. Like 25% of my hands, maybe more. He has min4bet me a couple of times, I only found out in the last hand (that tilted me when he sucked out real bad) that he'd do it with weakish (ajo) hands. Here's the hand in question:

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $372.90
Hero (BB): $415.10

Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (BB)
<font color="red">SB raises to $4</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $21</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $48</font>, Hero calls $27

Flop: ($96) T 4 J (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $65</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $130</font>, Hero calls $65

Turn: ($356) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">SB bets $194.90 and is All-In</font>, Hero folds

Results: $356 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
SB mucked and WON $355.50 (+$177.50 NET)


I really wanted to 5bet pf, but then I'm getting in like 2/3 of a BI PF, and this was the first time he'd made a raise like that. should I seriously just 5bet? I'm pretty lost in that case on most flops unless I hit. I guess I could just cbet like I do in the other pots, but then I'm gonna have a nightmare of a time folding to a raise. Anyway, I decide to call. The flop is actually pretty good for me, and isn't likely to hit a lot of his hands (aq, ak, 33, 85s, whatever). In many of the raised pots we'd played previously, he'd fold if I led out and he had nothing. If he raised he had a pair, and I'd fold. I also knew that he was going to pot it on the flop if I check to him, so I did this as sort of a blocker/feeler bet. When he only minraises me, I'm 70% sure he has a jack. Maybe an overpair, but I think he raises more with that. So wtf do I do? He's not folding a jack here if I shove (even like j2 I don't think he folds), so I tank and tank and decide that I probably have 10 outs here and shouldn't fold to a minraise in a huge pot, so I don't. The turn is a brick and I contemplate shoving (it's about a psb), but I think all that really happened here is my equity dropped like a rock and I'm gonna have to c/f. I HATE this entire hand, how I played it, and how it turned out. I tried to go through a reasonable thought process here, but this was a situation I'm like never in, and frankly I think I messed it up pretty bad. I almost got most of it back 5 hands later but of course he hit an ace with his ajo against my qq pf so I instaquit.

I think I should check the flop and shove if he bets. That way I have a decent chance of seeing a free card, and I REALLY put him to the test to see if he wants to call off another buyin or more with his generally weak one pair hand.

[abcjnich]

First mistake- betting the flop. Not sure what this accomplishes. If he's telling the truth, he has something and he's going to raise. You're only beating aq or kq and he might check those.

second mistake- assuming you have 10 outs.

that is all. pf is fine. against these players i don't like to play a huge pot until i have something and ak is only A high until it hits.

flop was your big mistake by leading. chk/call if he bets small. if he bets big wait for a better opportunity. just think, damn i missed the flop, too bad, ill win it all back plus some when i do hit a flop. against these players there is always a better oppurtunity than playing pots where you only have '10' outs.

[Insane_Steve]

Holy crap pleeeeease c/f the flop.

He's saying he has a big pair here, especially if he's a "predictable" player as you say.

[PerDoom]

betting flop is ok. Going to be hard to call down with ace high and since this guy calls with so much [censored] he'll fold a bunch. Fold to the min raise though since you only have 4 clean outs. Maybe if you were 300+bbs deep would calling be ok.

[olof86]

betting flop is pretty horrible.. I might c/c or c/f depending on his betsize.

Preflop is fine imo.

[lwrunner103]

Flop is obvious spew.

[jakeduke]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop is obvious spew.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, that's super helpful.

I don't think the flop bet is totally horrible, but there's better options out there. I do, however, agree that calling the minraise was bad. c/f seems ridiculous given his range and the fact that he cbet every reraised pot we've played so far. His line does not scream "I have AA/KK/JJ", it says "I have a pair". I don't really like c/c a ton either, because then I'm in a similar spot to the one I put myself in with the line I took. What do you guys think of crai? If he pots the flop crai is a little under a PSR.

[olof86]

why do you actually feel obligated to win this pot?

[jay_shark]

You did say the he folds a lot on the flop which means I would heavily lean towards raising one more time preflop .

If he is extremely spewy post-flop , then calling pre is fine as well .

[jakeduke]

olof,

I don't feel obligated to win the pot at all, but it's a big pot where his hand range isn't necessarily strong. If his range to get to the flop was like {JJ+,AK} I'd be quite happy to c/f, but it's miles wider than that.