1/2, QQ vs aggro player on scary board

[TheProdigy]

Ok, so player is lionel#####(dunno the #'s), and he plays 17/13/6, aka very very aggressive. My flop line was going for a check-raise. Some have said I c-r too much but I only do it vs good opponents as a switch it up type thing and it has worked with just amazing success so no need to question the flop play(regardless, I think it is a very good play on this board vs this player anyways)

Anyways, narrow his range and tell me what you would do on this river.

edit: I usually bet more preflop on the raise of an aggro player, but I have a betpot script that sets it at 3x, and once in a great while I'm too dumb to bump it a bit. I haven't really thought through the strat. of raising more vs good/aggro players(regardless of hand), so I'm not sure if I do it for the right reasons, but I am going to think that through in class and figure out the pros/cons and see what I think.
Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $239.00
Hero (BB): $453.60
UTG: $274.95
UTG+1: $197.00
MP1: $154.30
MP2: $123.20
CO: $121.55
BTN: $180.95

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $8.00</font>, 5 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $24.00</font>, UTG+1 calls $16.00

Flop: ($49) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

Turn: ($49) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $26.00</font>, UTG+1 calls $26.00

River: ($101) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets $71.00</font>, Hero ??

[Mike Kelley]

insta folds. You lost some value you will hopefully regain later when the C/R works.

Why is a b/f bad in this situation? Seems like checks induce bluffs. Your hand has some showdown value and it's a kind of scary board with the flush and the ace out there, anyone RR'ng should have a geniune hand.

EDIT:

Question? You have seriously had good luck c/r after you RR'd preflop?

[GrandMelon]

I really doubt he plays AA/KK this passively since this is a great board for those hands. AK calling you down is definitely possible but wouldn't he just bet the flop if he wanted to take the pot down? Mid pairs going for pot control then bluffing a scare card like this one seems like the most likely hand imo. Id probably call and except to see something like JJ.

[BT2]

this looks so much like AK.

[CalledDownLight]

I'd call. He's turning like every pair into a bluff here imo.

[TheProdigy]

Mike: I have a lot of good "luck" with that play because of when I do it. Players like this, or Dillith, etc, will bet out a lot of flops. Just ask Dillith, I have done it enough that he will gladly check behind now(thus I don't c-r him as much as I used to). The player I do this to are 12+ PFR, 3.5+ AF, and generally good regs who will bet almost any flop when checked to. Why do you insta-fold? What kind've hands does he have here? You have to have some kind've range.

BT2: This doesn't look anything like AK. This is a guy who is 17/13 going against me who 3bets very often against these players. He doesn't just play AK like this.

Melon: Yes no way does he have KK, and AA is prob doubtful because I'm aggro and I think he 4bets thinking I will insta-push over him.

Also, that was the same read as me Melon, during the hand this is what I said:
*** RIVER *** [5h Ts 3h 8c] [Ah]
Schwallie4: checks
lionel876: bets $71
Schwallie4 said, "so sick that you would bluff here"
Schwallie4 said, "JJ?"


Also, he bets flush draws on the flop, IMO.

Does anyone else have any kind've range here that isn't a bluff?

[Mike Kelley]

If he calls with Top half o his PFR%

88+,ATs+,KTs+,AQo+

Then eliminate the suited hands that aren't hearts with the bet on the turn.

Board: 5h Ts 3h 8c Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.222% 71.11% 01.11% 32 0.50 { 88+, AKs, ATs, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, AKo }
Hand 1: 27.778% 26.67% 01.11% 12 0.50 { QcQd }

[TheProdigy]

ATs+,KTs+,AQo+ all play differently.

The first set all raise on the flop, he knows he doesn't have showdown value and he wants to try to win it there. AQ same as the other way, and AK reraises pre by this guy.

[Mike Kelley]

If you are so sure they all play this differently from this player then it is a clear call.

Board: 5h Ts 3h 8c Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.789% 63.16% 02.63% 12 0.50 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 34.211% 31.58% 02.63% 6 0.50 { QQ-88 }

[TheProdigy]

No, I mean I'm not positive, but I just can't think of any other hands in this situation that would be played that way. I can't think of one hand that he plays like this that isn't a bluff. That is kinda why I brought it here, to see if my range fits other people's range when it comes to how his line goes.