Passer rating

[kevkev60614]

The current formula for passer rating in the NFL is:
=(MAX(MIN((COMP/ATT*100-30)/20,2.375),0)+MAX(MIN((YDS/ATT-3)/4,2.375),0)+MIN(TD/ATT*20,2.375)+MAX(2.375-INT/ATT*25,0))*100/6

Criticisms include:[*]It's too complex for the casual spectator to calculate.[*]The scale is arbitrary (out of 158.3).[*]The average is arbitrary (wikipedia says 78.9 for '00-'03).[*]Sacks/rushing yards aren't included.[*]The limits are arbitrary (77.5% completion percentage, 12.5 yards/attempt, 11.9% TD percentage, 9.5% INT percentage).[*]It sort of double counts completion percentage.

DVOA accounts for some of this but is a fairly complex calculation.

Why not use a formula such as this one I just made up:
=MIN(MAX((YDS+TD*30-INT*45)*8/ATT,0),100)

Based on 2006 data only:[*]It's a great deal simpler.[*]It's based on a range from 0-100.[*]The average for 2006 is ~50 (this will change over time, but whatever)[*]It has a (marginally) higher correlation with with winning.[*]The difference between team passer ratings has a (marginally) higher correlation with winning.[*]It's limited only by 0 and 100 overall (19 on each side in 2006 vs. 62 capped using current methodology).

Sacks/rushing yards still aren't included. But then again sacks are more often a function of line play than being a good passer, and one could argue that rushing yards have no business in a passer rating calculation anyway.

Again, DVOA is better than any number I could hope to come up with. But I think the NFL could use an easily calculated stat on a scale that makes sense for passer rating. Thoughts?

[Jack of Arcades]

adjust yards per attempt

[THAY3R]

It's funny how media people use Passer rating like it's gospel yet freak out when someone mentions OBP.

[kyleb]

Much less VORP.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
adjust yards per attempt

[/ QUOTE ]

[PokerFink]

kevkev,

Could you post some 2006 quarterback statistics to see how your rating compares with the normal rating? Don't need all their stats obv, just conventional QB rating and your rating.

Let's pick 10 QBs to compare: Brady, Manning, Palmer, Leftwich, VY, Grossman, David Carr, JP Losman, Jeff Garcia and Roethlisberzerswersr.

Edit: I'm not trying to be an ass here, I'm legit curious, but I'm on my parents computer and they don't have Excel. And those QBs aren't random, some of those names are in there for specific reasons.

[legend42]

[ QUOTE ]
Much less VORP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Much less EqA

[PokerFink]

[ QUOTE ]
It's funny how media people use Passer rating like it's gospel yet freak out when someone mentions OBP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Passer rating has been around a while, no? (I'm not saying OBP is new, but the consistant use of OBP is a somewhat new thing).

And while the formula is complex, it's easy to look at a QB rating and know if it's good or not. Everyone knows that ~100 is good, and that's simple.

Besides, who freaks out over OBP?

[Spellmen]

That confused me as well, I'm thinking he meant OPS

[kidcolin]

They freak about OPS. Most don't freak over OBP, but they're not accepting of its true value.