24+2/180: AKo laydown?

[BarryLyndon]

Villain1 is noted as a losing player. Earlier on, he had AK on a Qs Ks 2c board in a button/BB battle and checked flop, minraised turn 7d, and bet 120 into 500 on a 2h river. Minraised PF once in MP, I RRed, he folded.

Villain2 is a standard TAG who has won a lot from blind battles where he hit a flush/straight against two pair, but has been tight otherwise. Wasn't around to see Villain2's fine play earlier.

Good time to lay down AKo?

Blinds 40/80

Villain1 (1,620), UTG
Villain2 (4,325), MP1
Hero (1,495), MP2

Villain1 raises to 160, fold, Villain2 RRs to 640, Hero with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ?

Barry

[Sherman]

No. This is easily an isolation raise from a TAG trying to isolate the big donkey. Shove.

[levAA]

Yes - If villain 2 is observant he should have quite a wide raising range - shove - i'm sure you have FE against villain 2 too.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm sure you have FE against villain 2 too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he shouldn't have. Villain 2 is going to be getting redic odds to call.

[BarryLyndon]

I guess I get confused in spots like this. Basically, I'm thinking that either UTGs or MP1's range must be QQ+ here, because if UTG calls, he's only calling with QQ+; AK to a 4-bet (since he's shown a propensity to fold here), and MP1 is never folding here and has just three-bet a UTG minraise. Three-bets from EP to UTG raises 10 handed have always scared me.

Barry

[Sherman]

AQ, AJs, pocket pairs.

[SuperUberBob]

With less than 20 BB, I get it all-in preflop.

I can rationalize a fold if you had a deeper stack.

[ssnyc]

barry...don't let recent bad runs take you off the correct play...this is a push and over the marathon of your poker career it is easily EV+ at this level

[levAA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'm sure you have FE against villain 2 too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he shouldn't have. Villain 2 is going to be getting redic odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

sure - missread hero's stack size