str8 draw faces 4 cold on dry flop

[shuinthehouse]

I think in ~40k hands online i've never faced 4 cold on the flop. UTG1 is a fish, don't remember stats, MP2 is decent, maybe 20/10/2 or so.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, hero calls, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, hero calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (14 SB, 7 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 caps</font>, MP3 folds, hero calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (14.5BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>, hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (20.5BB, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Results:
Final pot: 23.5BB
<font color="#ffffff">hero showed 5s As</font>
<font color="#ffffff">MP2 showed 7s 7d</font>
<font color="#ffffff">UTG+1 mucks 3d 5c</font>

Flop: my thoughts under fire were: I'm getting 24:6 = 4:1,I have 8 outs to a str8, it's highly unlikely anyone has one now, if 3 and 4 bettors have 2 pair or sets my str8 cards don't help them, if the board pairs on the turn or river I can safely fold, if I hit and the board doesn't pair I can win big. Also 1.5 outs for BDFD.

Turn: I'm getting 37:4 = 9:1, my 4 2 outs are live, and there's some chance both villains have 2 pair and my Ace outs are live, call it 1, very small chance a 5 helps me but no one else. 5 outs getting 9:1 has to call.

River: I bet because now it seems both villains have 2 pair and MHIG.

After the hand I had 2nd thoughts all day today, but when I stove it given villain's actual hands I had 21% equity on the flop, so my call was good? If I give villain 1 a set of 4's instead of 53 my equity goes to 29%. What say you wiser ones?

[milesdyson]

flop is probably a fold because one of those limpers is usually gonna have you drawing to a 3 out chop. anyway, it's gonna end up fairly close.

the turn is like the card from heaven because it lets you get out facing 2. dunno why you called there. you have a couple chop outs usually, but that's it.

[QueBob]

Never ever cold call a four bet...ever! Unless you have the nuts.

[BigBadBabar]

well you can call it if you have odds [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

admittedly this is a rare situation.

this one is close though. i tend to fold the flop.

[QueBob]

Your odds are never as good as they seem. Implied odd is the game.

[Sushiglutton]

I fold the flop. It's likely we are playing only 3 outs to split + BDFD. Also our draws are weakened by the fact someone probably holds a set because even if we hit there will be tons of re-draws.

[Landonfan]

Too much possibility for a chop. If it was an open-ender, then it leans more toward a call.

Turn is a fold. I don't think you can be so sure your 2's are live. You may be dead here quite a bit.