NLTRN 220 - Strange hand leads to river straight

[xSCWx]

I've played this guy 5 times today. I'm 4-1 against him.

I don't really have any read on him doing anything out of the ordinary. He is a very straight forward player. The one that thing is significant is that he has a discipline problem. He is one of those players where when he loses a big pot he goes all in preflop for the next 10 hands.

We are only ~8 or so hands into the tournament. I bet A3 on my first button preflop and chose to check through to the river on a QQJ94 board rather than cbetting, he showed J9 and it probably started me out with a more passive image for the tournament. I've cbet him out of my past 2 buttons.

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Full Tilt Poker Game #3694908696: $220 + $10 Heads Up Sit & Go (28171217), Table 1 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 6:53:57 ET - 2007/09/28
Seat 1: xSCWx (1,620)
Seat 2: DinoLand (1,380)
xSCWx posts the small blind of 15
DinoLand posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #1

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to xSCWx [8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
DinoLand has been disconnected
DinoLand has reconnected
xSCWx has 15 seconds left to act
xSCWx raises to 90
DinoLand calls 60

*** FLOP *** [4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
DinoLand checks
xSCWx bets 120
DinoLand calls 120

*** TURN *** [4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] [6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
DinoLand checks
xSCWx has 15 seconds left to act
xSCWx bets 300
DinoLand calls 300

*** RIVER *** [4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] [3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
DinoLand checks
xSCWx has 15 seconds left to act
xSCWx has requested TIME
xSCWx bets 1,110, and is all in[/b]



I'm almost positive from his line that he has some pair and is convinced that I have high cards but worried about big pockets. I figure there is no way he is putting me on a 5, so he is calling up to ~500 easily. With his ~800 left in his stack at the river, the 300 and chance will put him low enough for what should be an easy win, but still giving a fighting chance at coming back.

"Bluff" all-in here and risk betting out a weak pair, or make a value bet and leave him with a fighting chance?

[hra146]

According to Sklansky youre doing the right thing here. If you make a powerful hand in a very suprising / unexpected way you should tend to bet more.

Since youre line doesnt make sense with a 5 hes gonna put you on a bluff or a FH. He wouldnt check the river if he had a FH himself knowing that there is a very high chance you will check behind on that board.

I like it a lot and would probably play it the exact same way. From flop to river.

[PrimordialAA]

I don't know how I feel about betting that turn given his obvious passivity from the first hand, however with the way it played out I love the shove there, it is very unlikely he will ck a FH on the river to you, or at least most straight forward vills won't, as they are scared you will check behind, and it LOOKS bluffy, which is good, and you may get called down with trips, and overpair, or a single pair a decent amount, especially given the turn call, I like it

[derosnec]

the mistake here is the turn. the river is whatever and doesn't really merit discussion.

[xSCWx]

Do you guys feel that it is better to check the turn here?

[derosnec]

yeah. your implied odds are good on the river since one of your straights will be hidden and he probably won't put you on a 5 for the other straigh, although paired boards are kinda sucky for implied odds in general. so, when you have good implied odds, there is little need to semibluff/double barrel.

looking at the hand, he called a dry, paired low flop (he didn't cr your cbet, so PPs like 33/55+ are unlikely), the 6 is good for some of his hands, and if you check the turn and hit on the river you'll likely make some $$ since people like to bet rivers when pfr checks turn. if a K or Q or whatever came on the turn, i can see a case for double barreling. disclaimer: i don't play the 220s.

[xSCWx]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah. your implied odds are good on the river since one of your straights will be hidden and he probably won't put you on a 5 for the other straigh, although paired boards are kinda sucky for implied odds in general. so, when you have good implied odds, there is little need to semibluff/double barrel.

looking at the hand, he called a dry, paired low flop (he didn't cr your cbet, so PPs like 33/55+ are unlikely), the 6 is good for some of his hands, and if you check the turn and hit on the river you'll likely make some $$ since people like to bet rivers when pfr checks turn. if a K or Q or whatever came on the turn, i can see a case for double barreling. disclaimer: i don't play the 220s.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing that had me more hesitant on the river than my implied odds was that I felt it was likely I would be shoved into, and there is no way I would have been able to call.

I'm pretty sure by his play that he has a pretty vulnerable made-hand here. I can't really see him turning into a bluff on the river.

[DDBeast]

The turn is an easy check. He likely paired the flop, if not the turn may have paired his draw. I like the river against this player since he sounds bad enough to stack off with a crappy pair.

[xSCWx]

Results:

<font color="white"> Villain shows 62o. </font>

[Gesangsverein]

Although 220$ is far above my usual "playground", I think your turnplay isn`t best.

You have a decent draw + postion + a pot which already is medium sized (which means you should be able to get enough money in on the river if you hit and he has at least a bit of a hand).

If you bet: You risk getting raised by a 4 or maybe a medium-pocketpair. Also remember that if he really is lose enough to play a 35, he just hit. You risk getting bluffed off your hand, too!

If you check: You will be in a nice position if you hit and villain was calling flop with a hand like QT, J9, QJ, etc. For him your line so far looks weak (+ if you hit the river it will be a blank for him)but he will be afraid of a king or Ace high hand that beats him. So he will probably bet.

Would be pleased to hear if you think my assumptions are likely to be right / wrong.