timid with straight and flush draw

[Julio]

I know I should have bet the turn, but I'd like ya'll to explain to me precisely why again.

Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.02/$0.04
7 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
4 folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3SB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (1.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (1.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Results:
Final pot: 1.5BB

[Ulkis]

I would not risk 1BB to win 1.5BB (immediate odds 1.5-to-1). Hero has 9 outs to make a flush and 3 non-club 5's to make a straight, making 12 outs in total (2.83-to-1) at the most, and action so far has not convinced me there would be any further bets on the river so it looks to me implied odds are not good. I think this hand is too passive for hero to get a freeroll on the river.

[Smurph64]

why don't you do the math here and see what you come up with.

[Smurph64]

[ QUOTE ]
I would not risk 1BB to win 1.5BB (immediate odds 1.5-to-1). Hero has 9 outs to make a flush and 3 non-club 5's to make a straight, making 12 outs in total (2.83-to-1) at the most, and action so far has not convinced me there would be any further bets on the river so it looks to me implied odds are not good. I think this hand is too passive for hero to get a freeroll on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is a little more to this than outs here.

[Ulkis]

"I think there is a little more to this than outs here."

I'm sure there is something crucial I'm missing but if we have ~25-26% chance of making our hand and winning (and we can make our hand and still lose)ie we have ~25% pot equity in a 3-way pot (33% for each), we have a negative edge.

And I can't expect there to be a lot of betting on the last round if we make our hand. folding equity, don't think so.

If we make a best hand, we don't expect lots of action, and we may even already be behind to a bigger straight, or they could at least draw on us, bigger flush for instance. RIO?

[Smurph64]

this is an orphan pot. what range of hands that your opponents play can make a call here. What range of hands will check/raise? What range of hands will reraise?


Any time a flop gets orphaned you have to look at the possible holdings of the opponents, your position, the likelihood of a fold and your equity in the pot.

In this case, we are very sure that the flop and turn missed the small blind. The button had a steal opportunity but decided it wasn't strong enough to raise. So I can't put him on holding a pair and Ace or a King in his hand. His likely holdings are QJ to 10.9. If its not he probably is weak anyways and so I have to worry about him holding a king only.

I probably have lots of fold equity against these two opponents, considering their passive stance. Being in the blind my range is wide open. So the bet on the turn indicates I likely have a K. Very few people will call here with a weak draw which is the best they can have. SB may call with a weak pair, being scared of the button on the flop and now being scared of the king.

But with 12 outs which represents a close to 30% chance of improving to the winning hand this is a great semi-bluff opportunity.

Even further however is the likelihood that a river that isn't a non club Q-9 is good for me because I am representing having kings.


Because of the delayed aggression here very few passives are going to call the second bet if they don't improve on the river.

So putting all these issues into context, this turn is a bet.

[BigBadBabar]

not betting the turn is fine.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
I know I should have bet the turn, but I'd like ya'll to explain to me precisely why again.

[/ QUOTE ]

You played it fine.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would not risk 1BB to win 1.5BB (immediate odds 1.5-to-1). Hero has 9 outs to make a flush and 3 non-club 5's to make a straight, making 12 outs in total (2.83-to-1) at the most, and action so far has not convinced me there would be any further bets on the river so it looks to me implied odds are not good. I think this hand is too passive for hero to get a freeroll on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is a little more to this than outs here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Limit: $0.02/$0.04

[/ QUOTE ]

Like what, Smurph?

Edit: just read further down...

[ QUOTE ]
I probably have lots of fold equity against these two opponents

[/ QUOTE ]

FE against multiple opponents on a draw-y board in a decent game is weak. In a game where players are known for calling down with 83o that's missed it's, by definition, non-existant.

[Smurph64]

sure not betting the turn is fine. Its more than fine its correct. But the point is these are very highly successful bluff opportunities and to not even consider it at this point as a possibility indicates underevaluating your hand and overevaluating your opponents.

So many guys think, ah its a small pot they can take it and that is a mistake here imo.

If you checked the turn here and button bet, sb called, what would you do?

If you bet the turn, what will button do? I say raise 5% of the time, fold 40% and call 55%. SB will fold probably 60% and call 40%.

So is checking through going to help you if you miss the river. Not a chance, you have to check/fold

I estimate having 28% equity here. So a check makes snese. Adding fold equity to that position, which is of course the debatable part. I lose this hand 72% of the time but they will fold any non pair holding with the King on board considering the pot size at least 1/3 of the time. That gives me a 24% chance of getting them to fold. Adding the 24% fold equity to the turn bet, I think pushes the turn to a bet situation.