Rebluffing In Dangerous Spots

[Vidocq]

I'm not sure the best forum for this and it may be too much of a "you had to be there" hand to be interesting but I have been wondering about it.

This hand was played the day before the EPT started in London. The game is 10/10 PL at the Vic and very deep. I have 2500 and am the short stack at the table.

The villain is John Duthie who, if you have played with him, you will know is one of the alltime greatest maniacs and bluffaholics. He's already done about 7500 and rebought for 15000 more. The rest of the table is a mix of Vic regulars and people in town for the tournament.

My image, due primarily due to being completely card dead for a couple of hours is uber tight.

In the hand, I'm dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button. There are four limpers, including Duthie (who is to my immediate right). I make it 75 to go on the button and everyone calls. So it is seven handed to the flop.

Flop (525): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

It is checked to me and I check behind. [Criticize that if you want but it is not the point of the post.]

Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

It gets checked to Duthie who bets 245, a bit less than half the pot. I am virtually certain he has absolutely nothing. He plays such a wide range of hands he could conceivably have the nuts but I don't think so.

So, the question is, do I make a move for this pot. To do it will take a raise of about half of my remaining stack. I've got five other people to act after me and Duthie is capable of pushing with nothing.

Should I go for it or not? How do you think about how best to approach this hand?

[Dire]

I would never make this bluff for two reasons.

1. There's so many players in the pot that its extremely likely somebody has hit this board, and pretty hard. There's nearly a 50% chance that somebody has an 8, and a very high chance somebody has an 8 or better. If you know these players wouldn't check a good hand here twice 7 handed then that's one thing, but it's probably not the case especially with random tournament players in the game.

2. Your play looks like a bluff. Everybody else at the table is going to know villain has been acting crazy and know you know that. And this is a spot where it seems everybody is weak and he's just trying to buy the pot. You raising with a monster makes no sense here, especially with you being last to act. This looks like a bluff 80% of the time and some sort of weak hand you want to protect 20% of the time. Even if you succeed and it folds all the way back around to villain, there's a reasonable chance he comes back over with air and you can't call.

[Praetor]

just fold, and cbetting this flop would be total spew

[winningfish]

7 to the flop in raised pot, there's virtually NO CHANCE that someone hasn't got a monster hand here. 99 88 66 77 55 67 78 89 all work with the board, plus higher & lower pockets, AK, that all beat you. And that doesn't include other drawing hands that will beat you by the river. This isn't heads up, it's not this John Duthie you're playing against, but the 5 behind you.

[The Velour Fog]

what hands would you check behind on this flop and then wake up on the turn with? your trying to sell that you, with your "uber tight" image, raised with X8 all of a sudden pre? in a 7 way pot? come on now...

but i gotta say, the most enjoyment i get out of playing really laggy is when nits lose all their marbles and do stuff like this.

[DeucesNeverLoses]

Def. gross spot to raise, you've raised OTB pre and no c-bet on a draw heavy board. There's no WAY you check a set on this flop, and everyone knows that. even if you flopped the nuts, you still have to bet since JTdd is coinflipping against you. Just be content you only lost $75 and wait for a better spot.

[rebuyboy]

[ QUOTE ]
7 to the flop in raised pot, there's virtually NO CHANCE that someone hasn't got a monster hand here.\

[/ QUOTE ]

how retarded are you

[Vidocq]

Yeah. I just let it go. Maybe a big raise would represent AA but not even that is too credible. And, who knows what was behind me. Of course, everyone folded and JD turned over 6x4x. Good for him.

[AAismyfriend]

So, are you calling a shove if you raise and he shoves?